Student Dropout in a Brazilian Public University: A Survival Analysis

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether educational factors and degree choice, sociodemographic origin and academic integration are associated with dropout in the first three years of a student at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). We operationalize dropout as the student's permanent departure from the undergraduate course h/she was enrolled. Dropout was analyzed using statistical models of discrete-time survival, which allows treating the data in its longitudinal structure. The institution's microdata, of a census nature, were used for the three-year follow-up of the cohort that entered in the first half of 2014Results point that during the time analyzed, the moments of greatest risk of dropout were the first, second and fifth semester. The sociodemographic origin of the students was not associated with course dropout. Educational and course choice factors were associated with dropout, especially in the first year. The hypothesis is that the course choice process, through the current access format to UFRJ, is possibly structuring an early dropout in the courses. The grade coefficient accumulated per semester (CRa), which was used as a proxy for formal academic integration, was shown to be associated with course dropout. Students with low CRa had a higher risk of dropping out than those with high CRa. These findings reveal the importance of understanding decision-making processes for entering and continuing studies.