Future uncertainties for the distribution and conservation of Paubrasilia echinata under climate change

Esser, Luíz Fernando; Saraiva, Daniel Dutra; Jarenkow, João André

doi:10.1590/0102-33062019abb0173

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 30 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Several studies forecasted the impacts of climate change on species distribution by using ENMs worldwide 44 – 47 , and consequently on ecosystem functionality 4 , 48 . The worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) showed the highest average decline in BAH in both non-dispersal (56.3%) and full dispersal (41.9%), when compared to the stabilization scenario (SSP2-4.5) and in 2061–2080, showing that species tend to be more threatened in this scenario and year, as demonstrated in other studies conducted with Brazilian species 49 , 50 . Our study evaluated widespread plant species, such as Axonopus fissifolius , occurring in all Brazilian phytogeographic domains and species with a narrow-ranged distribution, such as Adesmia bicolor from South Brazilian grasslands (Pampa).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

Lima

Joner

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5–56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3–41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8–84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7–64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

Lima

Joner

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The models were validated using 25% of the samples and the others 75% were used to training the models. We generated an ensemble of the different algorithms by calculating the arithmetic average of those algorithms with a TSS higher than 0.7 [ 44 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change could reduce and spatially reconfigure cocoa cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa’s geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the “biomod2” library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.

show abstract