Use of Stochastic Volatility Models in the Variability of Passengers and Cargo Transport in Some Airports in São Paulo State, Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACT. The proposed study is related to the identification of important factors that determine the feasibility of regional airport hubs in São Paulo State, Brazil. This way, new perspectives are created to map airports in this region based on economic criteria of operations and volumes. The study is based on statistical data analysis of time series related to operations and volume of passengers and cargo transport data sets during a fixed period of time. Stochastic volatility models are applied for the logarithmic transformed counting data set considering the four largest airports selected from a group of 32 airports in the São Paulo State chosen by their importance in the amount of passenger and cargo for the period ranging from the year 2008 to the year 2014. This study is a new approach in the analysis of air transport time series.