Revisitando a dinâmica trimestral do investimento no Brasil: 1996-2012

Santos, Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos; Modenesi, André de Melo; Squeff, Gabriel Coelho; Vasconcelos, Lucas Ferraz; Mora, Mónica Palma; Fernandes, Thaís Maria Freire; Moraes, Thiago Perez Bernardes de; Summa, Icardo; Braga, Julia de Medeiros

doi:10.1590/0101-31572016v36n01a11

Cited by 12 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(13 reference statements)

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“…Our estimates use monthly data from July 1999 to December 2013, totalizing 174 observations. The dependent variable (investment) is represented by the apparent consumption of capital goods, following Dos Santos et al (2016, 16 See Dos Santos et al (2016), Luporini and Alves (2010) and Dos Santos and Pires (2007;2009) who also use this variable in their estimations. 17 "Furthermore, applying Kalecki»s (1937) «principle of increasing risk», changes in the rate of interest have an impact on retained profits and thus on the willingness and the ability of firms to invest in capital stock."…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developmentalism and the determinants of investment: an econometric exercise for Brazil in the 2000s

Feijó

Braga

Corrêa

2019

BKR

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<p>The aim of this paper is twofold. At first, we briefly review the current debate in Brazil between the new-developmentalists and the social-developmentalists. Both groups assume that the investment is the main component of aggregate demand to explain growth. However, the key variable to determine demand for investment is different for each group. For the new-developmentalists, the key variable is the real exchange rate. For the second group, public investment and domestic mass consumption are the most relevant variables. Given this debate, our next step is to test econometric models that capture the determinants of investment in Brazil in the 2000s. We start with the investment function presented by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) and add other variables according to the developmentalist debate. We found robust results that confirm the validity of Bhaduri and Marglin´s hypothesis as well as the ones proposed by the new-developmentalists and the social-developmentalists.</p>

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developmentalism and the determinants of investment: an econometric exercise for Brazil in the 2000s

Feijó

Braga

Corrêa

2019

BKR

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“…(12) Para mais detalhes sobre o processo de desindustrialização brasileira, ver: Nassif (2008) e Oreiro e Feijó (2010).…”

Section: Uma Breve Análise Da Economia Brasileira No Período Pós-prunclassified

“…(19) Para uma discussão específica sobre os dados de investimento no Brasil, consultar Santos et al (2015).…”

Section: A Dinâmica Do Investimento No Brasil: Uma Análise Empíricaunclassified

“…Gráfico 5 FBKF (eixo esquerdo) em R$ milhões de 2013 e ICEI-Expectativas (CNI) (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013) Fonte: Elaborado pelos autores com base no Ipeadata (2015).…”

Section: Análise Empírica Descritivaunclassified

“…A estratégia adotada neste trabalho é distinta: são estimados dois modelos para cada teoria, considerando diferentes elementos teóricos, e se introduz apenas (2010).…”

Section: Análise Econométricaunclassified

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Por que a economia brasileira não cresce dinâmica e sustentavelmente? Uma análise kaleckiana e keynesiana

Filho

Milan

2016

Econ. soc.

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ResumoEste artigo examina a relação, para a economia brasileira, entre a formação bruta de capital fixo e o crescimento econômico. Tendo como referência as teorias keynesianas e kaleckianas, procura-se entender porque a economia brasileira, a despeito da estabilização monetária alcançada com o Plano Real, se encontra estagnada desde os anos 1990. As evidências empíricas mostram uma elevação do investimento por um curto intervalo nos últimos anos, mas em níveis insuficientes para dinamizar o crescimento econômico e ampliar a relação investimento/PIB. A análise econométrica apresenta resultados compatíveis com as interpretações teóricas e aponta para algumas barreiras importantes para o investimento, como as taxas reais de juros elevadas. Palavras-chave:Teoria do investimento; Crescimento econômico; Economia brasileira; Teoria kaleckiana; Teoria keynesiana. Abstract Why does the Brazilian economy not grow in a dynamic and sustainable way? A Kaleckian and Keynesian analysisThis article examines the relationship between investment and economic growth in Brazil. In light of the Keynesian and Kaleckian approaches, it aims to understand the stagnation the Brazilian economy has experienced since the 1990s, despite the monetary stabilization achieved with the Real Plan. Empirical evidence shows that investment increased for a period of time in the past few years, but not to the point of getting the economy back on track in terms of high growth rates and higher investment-GDP ratios. The econometric analysis is compatible with the theoretical underpinnings and identifies important issues such as the high real interest rates.

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The Limits of Pragmatism: The Rise and Fall of the Brazilian Workers’ Party (2002–2016)

Loureiro¹,

Saad‐Filho²

2018

Latin American Perspectives

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Under favorable external circumstances, the pragmatic political and economic strategy of Brazil’s Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers’ Party—PT) helped to secure short-term political stability, boosted growth, and supported an unprecedented distribution of income. However, it also meant that the PT had to accommodate to rather than transform the constraints on growth in Brazil and that stability would involve unwieldy political alliances preventing deeper reforms. When it was confronted with deteriorating global economic conditions and increasingly ineffectual economic policies, the PT’s strategy immobilized the party, facilitated the dissolution of its base of support, and expedited its ouster from power. The Brazilian experience suggests that political pragmatism can, within limits, support progressive economic change but that the outcomes depend heavily on external circumstances and the stability of the political coalitions supporting the administration. Em circunstâncias externas favoráveis, a pragmática estratégia política e econômica do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) ajudou a assegurar a estabilidade política no curto prazo, impulsionou o crescimento e apoiou uma distribuição de renda sem precedentes. No entanto, isso também significou que o PT teve que se acomodar a, em vez de transformar, as restrições ao crescimento no Brasil, e que a estabilidade envolveria alianças políticas comprometedoras, impedindo reformas mais profundas. Quando foi confrontada com a deterioração das condições econômicas globais e apresentando políticas econômicas cada vez mais ineficazes, a estratégia do PT imobilizou o partido, facilitou a dissolução de sua base de apoio e acelerou sua saída do poder. A experiência brasileira sugere que o pragmatismo político pode, dentro de certos limites, apoiar a mudança econômica progressista, mas que os resultados dependem muito das circunstâncias externas e da estabilidade das coalizões políticas que apóiam a administração.

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Revisitando a dinâmica trimestral do investimento no Brasil: 1996-2012

Cited by 12 publications

References 17 publications

Developmentalism and the determinants of investment: an econometric exercise for Brazil in the 2000s

Developmentalism and the determinants of investment: an econometric exercise for Brazil in the 2000s

Por que a economia brasileira não cresce dinâmica e sustentavelmente? Uma análise kaleckiana e keynesiana

The Limits of Pragmatism: The Rise and Fall of the Brazilian Workers’ Party (2002–2016)

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