Monetary policy independence and floating exchange rates: what does the Brazilian evidence tell us?

Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo Soares

doi:10.1590/0101-31572004-1636

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Similarly, the Brazilian inflation targeting regime employs the selic rate as the primary monetary policy instrument. Goncalves (1993) indicated that the shifting from fixed to floating exchange rates has not resulted in improved economic outcomes for developing countries. It is clear that the fear of floating was less acute due to low exchange rate pass-through and the policymakers focusing on monetary policy primarily.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Asymmetric Effect of Currency Risk Pricing of Exchange Rate on Equity Markets: A Regime-Switching Based C-Vine Copulas Method

Mudiangombe

Mwamba

2022

IJFS

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This paper investigates whether currency risk is priced differently in the different sectors (industrial, financial, and basic materials) of equity markets in a sample of developed United States of America (USA) and developing economies (Brazil, India, Poland, and South Africa). The paper makes use of the following techniques: (i) Univariate Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average and Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARFIMA-EGARCH), (ii) the Markov Switching method (MS), and (iii) the Canonical Vine Copulas (C-Vine) techniques. Using a sample of daily data made of the foreign exchange rate against the domestic currency and equity market sectors; our findings show that there is an asymmetry effect between equity markets and the foreign exchange rate: there is a heterogeneous, strong, and positive dependence between the two. Higher equity prices are associated with depreciation of local currencies, according to US dollar (USD) exchange rates. In addition, we find that the selected emerging economies are pricing a positive and considerable currency risk. The pricing of currency risk has a varied effect in both regimes representing the states of the economy. In fact, when currency risk pricing has a beneficial impact on certain sectors of the economy, investors predict better returns.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Asymmetric Effect of Currency Risk Pricing of Exchange Rate on Equity Markets: A Regime-Switching Based C-Vine Copulas Method

Mudiangombe

Mwamba

2022

IJFS

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“…Outros autores também tratam da mudança do regime cambial em janeiro de 1999, dentre os quais destacam-se: Bevilaqua e Garcia (2002);Gonçalves (2004);Assis (2002); Frankel (2003) eGoldfajn (2002).…”

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Credibilidade e crises cambiais: uma aplicação do modelo de Velasco

Menezes¹,

Moreira²,

Souza³

2005

Econ. Apl.

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Este artigo analisa as crises cambiais dos principais países da América do Sul, no período de 1992 a 1998, com base no modelo de Velasco (1996). Este é um modelo que sintetiza dois enfoques: ataques especulativos resultantes de desequilíbrios nos fundamentos macroeconômicos e resultantes de profecias auto-rea-lizáveis, mesmo quando as economias apresentam bons fundamentos. Nove países latino-americanos são classificados por meio da construção de um índice derivado de uma função perda. Desse modo é possível agrupar os países pelo grau de vulnerabilidade às crises, estabelecendo-se zonas de credibilidade. Os resultados indicam que a economia brasileira, por apresentar problemas nos fundamentos macroeconômicos, foi classificada em uma zona de credibilidade nula. A Argentina moveu-se de uma zona de alta credibilidade para uma faixa intermediária. Isto indica que a Argentina tornou-se suscetível às crises auto-realizáveis. As demais economias situaram-se numa região de alta credibilidade.
This paper analyzes the currency crises of the South American countries during the period from 1992 to 1998, based on the Velasco (1996) model. This is a model that synthesizes two approaches: speculative attacks resulting from unbalanced macroeconomics fundamentals and resulting from self-fulfilling prophecies, even when the economies show good fundamentals. Nine Latin American countries are classified by means of a loss function index. Thus, it is possible to classify the countries by the degree of vulnerability to the crises, establishing zones of credibility. The results indicate that the Brazilian economy, since it shows problems in its macroeconomic fundamentals, was classified in the zone of null credibility. Argentina moves from a zone of high credibility to an intermediate or partial zone. This is an indication that Argentina became susceptible to self-fulfilling crises. All other countries were classified in the zone of high credibility

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“…Os resultados das séries simuladas apontam que choques monetários possuem efeito negativo e relevante no produto. Além disso, no período de baixa inflação, o grau de persistência da taxa de inflação diminuiu e os choques de política, identificados como choques na taxa de juros (1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985), alta inflação (1985-1994) e período de câmbio fixo e flutuante em Soares (2004). O autor estima para os dois regimes uma regra de política e curva de Phillips.…”

Section: Resultados Naunclassified

Choques tecnológicos e política monetária no Brasil pós Plano Real

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Monetary policy independence and floating exchange rates: what does the Brazilian evidence tell us?

Cited by 4 publications

References 9 publications

Dynamic Asymmetric Effect of Currency Risk Pricing of Exchange Rate on Equity Markets: A Regime-Switching Based C-Vine Copulas Method

Dynamic Asymmetric Effect of Currency Risk Pricing of Exchange Rate on Equity Markets: A Regime-Switching Based C-Vine Copulas Method

Credibilidade e crises cambiais: uma aplicação do modelo de Velasco

Choques tecnológicos e política monetária no Brasil pós Plano Real

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