O fisco e a inflação: uma interpretação do caso brasileiro

Abstract

Resumo As interpretações “fundamentalistas” disponíveis da inflação brasileira parecem incapazes de explicar por que o Brasil tem uma taxa de inflação tão alta com um déficit operacional do setor público tão pequeno. Procura-se explicar esse paradoxo com o uso dos conceitos de déficit potencial com inflação zero e erosão inflacionária das despesas orçamentárias do governo. Conclui-se que a resolução do conflito inflacionário brasileiro passa pela transferência, aos governos locais ou ao setor privado, de parcela significativa das atuais funções do governo federal.

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“…When Google search for the term "Patinkin effect" is done, Cardoso (1998) is the first result, displaying the relevance of this work. In Brazil, the Patinkin effect is also known as the "Bacha effect" after the economist Edmar Bacha (1994) conducted empirical studies that suggested that the Patinkin effect dominated the Tanzi effect in periods of high Brazilian inflation (Giambiagi & Além, 2011, p.124). Cardoso (1998) mentions Bacha's paper and her work dialogues with his discussion.…”

“…When Bacha (1994) was elaborating the paper " O fisco e a inflação: uma interpretação do caso brasileiro" 149 , Brazilian inflation was at a four-digit mark hitting 1.000 per year. There was an unresolved paradox in the Brazilian finances: the coexistence of mega inflation and a relatively low budget deficit 150 .…”

“…There was an unresolved paradox in the Brazilian finances: the coexistence of mega inflation and a relatively low budget deficit 150 . Bacha (1994) criticizes the responses to the paradox given by what he refers to as "fundamentalist theories 151 ," which he believes fail to explain Brazilian inflation adequately. 149 The alternative title in English is: "The revenue and the inflation: an interpretation of the Brazilian case".…”

“…Paradoxically, this economic turmoil occurred alongside a relatively modest public sector deficit, amounting to just 1.7% of the country's GDP. 151 According to Bacha (1994), the three most commonly encountered "fundamentalist" theories in the literature that suggest the fiscal nature of Brazilian inflation are: loss of confidence in the national currency, anticipatory Bacha (1994) proposed an opposing thesis based on two then-emerging yet relatively unexplored concepts: the potential budget deficit under conditions of zero inflation, the erosion of government budget expenditures by inflation, and the Patinkin effect. Both ideas are also present in Cardoso's 1998 analysis.…”

“…According to Bacha (1994), the concept of potential deficit with zero inflation can help explain the paradox of high inflation rates in Brazil despite a relatively small operational deficit in the public sector. The likely deficit is defined as the difference between government expenditures and the tax revenue collected in a situation of full employment and price stability.…”