Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Néstor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew R.

doi:10.1590/0074-0276140136

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…However, an additional limitation is the lack of data on Mayaro outbreaks in the other local populations. Despite this, the epidemic dynamics obtained in Colombia is consistent with that reported in other studies available in the literature of dengue [ 65 , 66 ], chikungunya [ 67 ] and Zika [ 66 ] for the country.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Additionally, scenarios were simulated with the beginning of the infection, not in Imerí, but in Magdalena, taking into account that it is the province most connected by land [ 62 ]. In both simulations, initial proportions of human populations were taken from DANE data (Table 1 ), and the initial mosquito populations were hypothetical values because in Colombia and the rest of the world there are no precise estimates of these, there are some mathematical estimates that cannot be extrapolated for our case [ 66 , 67 ]. In all provinces, the initial populations were H : 300, L : 200, P : 200, As : 200 and Ae : 0.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis

2020

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Background Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas. Methods The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector’s population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces. Results The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33–21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time. Conclusions The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis

2020

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“…Combining mathematical models and data on population sizes (e.g. [ 39 ]) can help to narrow down the realistic parameter range, however further experimental data is required to refine these yet further.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population dynamics of engineered underdominance and killer-rescue gene drives in the control of disease vectors

Edgington

Alphey

2018

PLoS Comput Biol

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A number of different genetics-based vector control methods have been proposed. Two approaches currently under development in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the two-locus engineered underdominance and killer-rescue gene drive systems. Each of these is theoretically capable of increasing in frequency within a population, thus spreading associated desirable genetic traits. Thus they have gained attention for their potential to aid in the fight against various mosquito-vectored diseases. In the case of engineered underdominance, introduced transgenes are theoretically capable of persisting indefinitely (i.e. it is self-sustaining) whilst in the killer-rescue system the rescue component should initially increase in frequency (while the lethal component (killer) is common) before eventually declining (when the killer is rare) and being eliminated (i.e. it is temporally self-limiting). The population genetics of both systems have been explored using discrete generation mathematical models. The effects of various ecological factors on these two systems have also been considered using alternative modelling methodologies. Here we formulate and analyse new mathematical models combining the population dynamics and population genetics of these two classes of gene drive that incorporate ecological factors not previously studied and are simple enough to allow the effects of each to be disentangled. In particular, we focus on the potential effects that may be obtained as a result of differing ecological factors such as strengths of larval competition; numbers of breeding sites; and the relative fitness of transgenic mosquitoes compared with their wild-type counterparts. We also extend our models to consider population dynamics in two demes in order to explore the effects of dispersal between neighbouring populations on the outcome of UD and KR gene drive systems.

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“…It had a moderate human population density and marked seasonality of Ae. aegypti . Data obtained from the treated site were compared with those for two nearby untreated neighbourhoods, located in similar residential estates called ‘Lluvia de Oro’ and ‘Princesa Mia’ (Fig.…”

Section: Experimental Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short‐term suppression of Aedes aegypti using genetic control does not facilitate Aedes albopictus

et al. 2015

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BACKGROUND: Under permit from the National Biosafety Commission for the use of genetically modified organisms, releases of a genetically engineered self-limiting strain of Aedes aegypti (OX513A) were used to suppress urban pest Ae. aegypti in West Panama. Experimental goals were to assess the effects on a coexisting population of Ae. albopictus and examine operational parameters with relevance to environmental impact. RESULTS: Ae. albopictus populations were shown to be increasing year upon year at each of three study sites, potentially reflecting a broader-scale incursion into the area. Ae. albopictus abundance was unaffected by a sustained reduction in Ae. aegypti by up to 93% through repeated releases of OX513A. Males accounted for 99.99% of released OX513A, resulting in a sustained mating fraction of 75%. Mean mating competitiveness of OX513A was 0.14. The proportion of OX513A in the local environment decreased by 95% within 25 days of the final release.CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence for species replacement of Ae. aegypti by Ae. albopictus over the course of this study. No unintentional environmental impacts or elevated operational risks were observed. The potential for this emerging technology to mitigate against disease outbreaks before they become established is discussed.

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Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

Cited by 18 publications

References 48 publications

The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis

The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis

Population dynamics of engineered underdominance and killer-rescue gene drives in the control of disease vectors

Short‐term suppression of Aedes aegypti using genetic control does not facilitate Aedes albopictus

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