The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis

Abstract

Background Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas. Methods The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector’s population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces. Results The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33–21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time. Conclusions The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic.

A new vector emerges? Aedes vittatus mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae): habitat and current and future potential global geographic invasion

“…worldclim.org/). These variables are crucial for understanding the mosquito vectors' life cycle (Echeverry-Cárdenas et al, 2021;Leyton et al, 2020;Valencia-Marín et al, 2020). We obtained and extracted elevation data from WorldClim v2.1 (https://www.worldclim.org/) and land coverage data from Diva-gis (https://www.divagis.org/).…”

Etiologies of Zoonotic Tropical Febrile Illnesses That Are Not Part of the Notifiable Diseases in Colombia

“…Although its importance may be underestimated to date, a study showed, using mathematical analysis, that several regions are at greater risk of a possible MAYV epidemic once the mosquitoes adapt to an urban environment or MAYV adapts to urban or urban–wild transition mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus , respectively [ 66 ]. Thus, MAYV might be one of the most critical threats in the future due to accelerated urbanization and deforestation, adapting to other anthropophilic mosquitoes such as Aedes spp., whose competence as a MAYV vector has already been demonstrated and are circulating in an urban cycle [ 67 ].…”

Gene Flow Patterns of the Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquito in Colombia: a Continental Comparison Suggests Multiple Invasion Routes and Gene Exchange

“…In any scenario, whether terrestrial or riverine, both are associated globally with passive transport of immature or adult forms of the dengue vector (Morrison et al, 2006;Gonçalves et al, 2012). A mathematical model proposed by our research group, incorporating land cargo transport for A. aegypti and the Mayaro virus, suggests that the presence of roadways with greater flow of cargo influence on the dissemination of the vector at broad geographic scales and, consequently, contribute with the epidemiological spread of arbovirus (Valencia-Marín et al, 2020).…”