Waiting for chikungunya fever in Argentina: spatio-temporal risk maps

Abstract

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in half of the country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya by Ae. aegypti in the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems unavoidable.

Burden of chikungunya in Latin American countries: estimates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) lost in the 2014 epidemic

“…9 Although other countries of Latin America show lower DALYs, vector expansion in the context of climate change, should rise attention and lead to establish preventive and control measures. 10,11 Estimates for Dengue burden in the region showed that 69,000 DALY were lost in 2004. This is 2 times lower than the estimated for pCHIK-CIR, suggesting that CHIK can become the new most important arbovirosis in Latin America in terms of chronic disability.…”

Arbovirus Vectors of Epidemiological Concern in the Americas: A Scoping Review of Entomological Studies on Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya Virus Vectors

“…One study estimated chikungunya transmission risk according to temperature threshold for breeding and adult mosquitoes in Argentina [195]. The authors suggest that temperatures conducive to Ae.…”

Antivirals Against Chikungunya Virus: Is the Solution in Nature?

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