Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of bacillary dysentery in Guangzhou, Southern China

Abstract

Introduction:The control of bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big challenge for China. Methods: Negative binomial multivariable regression was used to study relationships between meteorological variables and the occurrence of BD during the period of [2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012]. Results: Each 1°C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 3.60% (95%CI, 3.03% to 4.18%) in the monthly number of BD cases, whereas a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of BD cases by 2.85% (95%CI = 3.34% to 2.37% decrease). Conclusions: Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of BD in Guangzhou.Keywords: Bacillary dysentery. Weather factors. Correlation.Bacillary dysentery (BD), also known as shigellosis, is a common intestinal infectious disease caused by Shigella. Worldwide, the incidence of BD is estimated to be 164.7 million cases per year, 163.2 million of which were in developing countries, where 1.1 million deaths occurred 1 . As the largest trading city in southern China, Guangzhou is a representative city with a high prevalence of BD. It was reported that, during the period of 1997-2005, the annual incidence rate of BD ranged from 15.24 to 20.50 per 100,000 inhabitants 2 , raising concerns among public health authorities regarding its high incidence.BD control is a serious challenge due to many factors. Currently, one of the critical programs for preventing BD is concentrated on monitoring and predicting BD incidence. Although previous studies have revealed signifi cant correlations between meteorological factors and BD infection 3 , the infl uence of these variables depends on differences in socioeconomic backgrounds and climate patterns in different regions 4,5 . Moreover, in southern China, very little information is available regarding the use of meteorological variables as predictors for the occurrence and transmission of BD. The goals of this study were to examine the effects of weather patterns on the incidence of BD in Guangzhou between 2006 and 2012 and to develop a simple, precise, and low-cost functional early warning system. We obtained BD incidence data for Guangzhou from the National Notifi able Disease Report System (NNDRS).In China, BD is a notifi able Class-B communicable disease, and all cases are diagnosed according to the unifi ed diagnostic criteria issued by the Chinese Ministry of Health. For a patient's illness to meet the case defi nition for BD clinical symptoms (e.g., diarrhea, fever, abdominal pains, tenesmus, and stool mixed with blood), samples should be taken for laboratory confi rmation (e.g., dysentery bacilli identifi cation and genetic material detection). A standard form was adopted by local physicians and epidemiologists to collect information from infected individuals. Routine case reporting is done by hospitals through the NNDRS within 24 hours. Simultaneous meteorological data, including daily average temperature (in °C), relative humidity (%), atmospheric pressure (i...

The relationship between meteorological factors and the risk of bacillary dysentery in Hunan Province, China

“…The time‐series Poisson regression model suggests that the number of hours of sunshine is a factor that has affected the transmission of bacillary dysentery in Xiangxi. However, other studies argue that the number of hours of sunshine does not affect the transmission of enteric infections (Ding et al, ; Li et al, ). A possible explanation is that temperature is correlated with hours of sunshine and, therefore, an increase in the number of hours of sunshine is accompanied by an increase in temperature, which promotes the growth of pathogens.…”

“…These findings are supported by other studies: Li et al . () found that in Guangzhou, China a 1 degC rise in temperature was correlated with a 3.6% (95% CI: 3.03–4.18%) increase in the number of cases of bacillary dysentery; a study by Zhang et al . () showed that there was a relationship between a maximum temperature rise and an increase of more than 10% in the number of cases of bacillary dysentery in Jinan, China; and research in Botswana by Alexander et al .…”

Enteric pathogens and factors associated with acute bloody diarrhoea, Kenya

“…Bivariate analysis identified eight [8] factors that were significantly associated with acute bloody diarrhoea, six protective and two risk factors (Table 3). The significant factors were included in the multivariate analysis.…”

Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China

“…In China, for instance, a study in Wuhan also reported a positive association between daily temperature and BD, the excess risk for 1 °C increase in daily temperature increase was 0·94% with a lag of 2 days [11]; however, studies at the monthly time scale showed a larger effect estimate, e.g. a 1 °C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 3·60% in the monthly number of BD cases in Guangzhou [32], and increases of 12% in Jinan and 16% in Shenzhen [13]. In Peru, each 1 °C increase in temperature was found to be associated with an 8% increase in the risk of severe child diarrhoea [33].…”