Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China

Li, Z. J.; Zhang, X. J.; Hou, Xuexin; Xu, Shuai; Zhang, J. S.; Song, Hongbin; Lin, Hualiang

doi:10.1017/s0950268815001156

Cited by 48 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…A similar association between relative humidity and the HFMD was observed in two other studies (Chen et al 2014;Li et al 2014). Additionally, the association between ecological factors and HFMD has a non-linear relationship, which was not analyzed in this study (Li et al 2015;Zhang et al 2016). In our data analysis, the association generally appeared to be linear.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

et al. 2016

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The influence of socio-ecological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) were explored in this study using Bayesian spatial modeling and spatial patterns identified in dry regions of Gansu, China. Notified HFMD cases and socio-ecological data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Yearbook and Gansu Meteorological Bureau. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the effects of socio-ecological factors on the HFMD and explore spatial patterns, with the consideration of its socio-ecological effects. Our non-spatial model suggests temperature (relative risk (RR) 1.15, 95 % CI 1.01-1.31), GDP per capita (RR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.01-1.39) and population density (RR 1.98, 95 % CI 1.19-3.17) to have a significant effect on HFMD transmission. However, after controlling for spatial random effects, only temperature (RR 1.25, 95 % CI 1.04-1.53) showed significant association with HFMD. The spatial model demonstrates temperature to play a major role in the transmission of HFMD in dry regions. Estimated residual variation after taking into account the socio-ecological variables indicated that high incidences of HFMD were mainly clustered in the northwest of Gansu. And, spatial structure showed a unique distribution after taking account of socio-ecological effects.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

et al. 2016

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“…Degrees of freedom for meteorological factors and their corresponding lags are as follows: 3, 5 for precipitation; 5, 5 for atmospheric pressure; 3, 4 for wind velocity; 6, 5 for temperature; 4, 5 for diurnal temperature range; 3, 6 for relative humidity; 3, 2 for sunshine duration. The meteorological value with the lowest risk of mumps was selected as the reference to calculate relative risk and the value was identified according to the cumulative effect of meteorological factor by DLNM Li et al, 2015;Zhang et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps in Fujian Province, China, 2005–2013: Non-linear effects

Han

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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“…10 Other results in New Zealand and Vietnam also show that RF is a positive factor for bacillary dysentery. 14,41,42 MeanH, MeanP, and MaxW may affect the transmission of bacillary dysentery by influencing the reproduction and growth of Shigella bacteria. 7 They may also affect the contamination of drinking water, which affects the incidence of diseases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Variables and Bacillary Dysentery Cases in Changsha City, China

Gao¹,

Zhang²,

Ding³

et al. 2014

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. This study aimed to investigate the association between meteorological-related risk factors and bacillary dysentery in a subtropical inland Chinese area: Changsha City. The cross-correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model were used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery. Monthly mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean air pressure, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature were significantly correlated with the number of bacillary dysentery cases with a 1-month lagged effect. The ARIMAX models suggested that a 1 C rise in mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature might lead to 14.8%, 12.9%, and 15.5% increases in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease, respectively. Temperature could be used as a forecast factor for the increase of bacillary dysentery in Changsha. More public health actions should be taken to prevent the increase of bacillary dysentery disease with consideration of local climate conditions, especially temperature.

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Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China

Cited by 48 publications

References 38 publications

Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

Meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps in Fujian Province, China, 2005–2013: Non-linear effects

Meteorological Variables and Bacillary Dysentery Cases in Changsha City, China

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