Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil

Abstract

This study estimated the potential effects of climate change on peripheral plant diversity by predicting the distribution of species from Cerrado of Northern Brazil. Ecological niche modeling was used to provide present and future projections of responses in terms of occurrence of ten woody species based on four algorithms and four future climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Potential refuge areas for conservation actions were identifi ed, and evidence of the vulnerability of the fl ora was demonstrated based on the disparity between potential areas of climate stability amid current protected areas. The results suggested a lack of pattern between the scenarios and an idiosyncratic response of the species, indicating different impacts on plant communities and the existence of unequal stable alternative conditions, which could bring consequences to the ecological relationships and functionality of the fl oras. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most species presented an expansion of potential occurrence areas, suppressing or cohabiting with species of adjacent biomes. Typically marginal plants were the most sensitive. Overlapping adequate habitats are concentrated in the NBC. The analysis of habitats in relation to anthropized areas and PAs demonstrate low future effectiveness in the protection of these savannas.

Potential Distribution of Pilocarpus microphyllus in the Amazonia/Cerrado Biomes under Near-Future Climate Change Scenarios

“…Ribeiro et al [52] showed significant impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of Dipteryx alata Vogel in the Brazilian Cerrado. Similar results have been reported in other studies of plants species from the Cerrado, related to climate change's impacts [52][53][54]. However, despite these studies demonstrating negative effects on the distribution of plants in this biome, Tomaz et al [55] indicated that a medicinal plant species tends to adapt in different environmental conditions, since the distribution of the species tends to decrease in the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga over northeast Brazil.…”

Áreas protegidas do cerrado: vulnerabilidade e adaptação às mudanças climáticas

“…As áreas protegidas do Cerrado desempenham um papel importante na conservação do bioma. Todavia, é imprescindível observar as mudanças no uso e ocupação da terra nessas áreas, visto que, o avanço das atividades agrícolas tem gerado preocupações com a preservação dos habitats naturais e ecossistemas do bioma (CRIVELARI-COSTA et al, 2023).…”