2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495
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Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases

Abstract: Cases from the ongoing outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exported from mainland China can lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other populations.

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Cited by 74 publications
(84 citation statements)
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“…Therefore our estimates should be viewed as a lower bound on the number of imported infections, given possible mild and asymptomatic infections. Even given this, we estimate that Indonesiawhich has reported 0 cases to date-would be expected to have more cases than this, in line with estimates from Lipsitch et al 6 . In addition, in places that have identified some cases-such as Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, the US and Malaysia-we estimate that the imported number of cases from Wuhan is even higher than those reported.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 89%
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“…Therefore our estimates should be viewed as a lower bound on the number of imported infections, given possible mild and asymptomatic infections. Even given this, we estimate that Indonesiawhich has reported 0 cases to date-would be expected to have more cases than this, in line with estimates from Lipsitch et al 6 . In addition, in places that have identified some cases-such as Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, the US and Malaysia-we estimate that the imported number of cases from Wuhan is even higher than those reported.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 89%
“…Previous work has estimated significant under reporting of COVID-19 cases in a number of countries such as Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand. 6 A detailed understanding of the geographical distribution of case importation will help to guide resources to places with currently limited capacity to test, and provide support to perform control measures and support for clinical care.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…While we know of no reason to doubt specificity of detection, we tested the assumption of perfect sensitivity. Based on our previous estimates 5 we assumed Singapore has the highest capacity of surveillance with respect to COVID-19. We regressed the cumulative cases against Wuhan-to-location air travel volume considering Singapore to have the greatest detection capacity and estimating the relative underdetection compared to Singapore in the remaining 190 locations classified according to the GHS 2 index 9 .…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…[12] consider the task of forecasting international and domestic spread of COVID-19 and employ Official Airline Group (OAG) data for determining air traffic to various countries. [6] fit a generalized linear model for observed number of cases in various countries as a function of air traffic volume obtained from OAG data (authors refer to [12]) to determine countries with potential risk of under-detection. [7] provide Africa-specific case-study of vulnerability and preparedness using data from Civil Aviation Administration of China.…”
Section: Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%