Today in the electric power industry of Ukraine the issue of assessing the risk of EPS operation due to failures of electrical equipment is particularly important. Failures are associated with significant level of aging and low replacement rates of electrical equipment, also with the possible simultaneous emergency decommissioning of several elements as a result of terrorist attacks. Based on the analysis of the operating conditions of high-voltage switching equipment, standards and operational documentation method of diagnosing the technical condition of SF6 circuit breakers is proposed. This method is based on the use of fuzzy set theory. To assess the risk of power outages in the EPS in case of electrical equipment failures, a linguistic model is proposed for determining the total residual life and the probability of failure of SF6 high-voltage circuit breakers of various types. Which is based on the aggregation of information on the technical condition of individual functional units. An approach is proposed to take into account the importance of individual units of the circuit breaker in terms of the impact on the total residual life by weight coefficients determined due to failure statistics. The result of determining the total residual life is the ability to estimate the probability of failure on the observation time interval. Tuning and adaptation of the developed linguistic model of the SF6 circuit breaker to real operating conditions is provided by adjusting the parameters of the membership functions of the terms of the input linguistic variables using weighting coefficients and fuzzy inference with weighted average truth. The developed linguistic mathematical model for assessing the technical condition and probability of failure of SF6 circuit breakers can be used as a component of the complex of risk analysis programs in the EPS. And the formation of preventive actions to ensure the operational reliability of electrical equipment and regime reliability of the EPS in case of emergency equipment failures.
Для задач аналізу ризику виникнення аварійних ситуацій в ЕЕС у разі відмов електрообладнання створено програмний модуль обробки ретроспективної й оперативної інформації щодо величин вузлового навантаження. Запропоновано підхід щодо трансформації статистичних розподілів імовірності в нечіткі інтервали , що дає можливість використовувати отримані залежності з різною формою представлення вихідної інформації при ймовірнісно-статистичному моделюванні режимів ЕЕС. Побудована математична модель прогнозування вузлового навантаження на основі МГУА-подібних нейронних мереж. Проведено розрахунки й порівняльний аналіз результатів прогнозування вузлового навантаження підсистеми «НЕК УКРЕНЕРГО» на інтервалі одна година на основі методів ARIMA, ARMAX та МГВА – нейронних мереж.
Urgency of research. Now there is a steady tendency to increase the accident rate in the electric power systems of Ukraine and other industrialized countries due to aging and exhaustion of the resource of electrical equipment, adverse degradation climatic conditions, electricity liberalization and other reasons. Therefore, it is necessary to develop mathematical models and create software for determining the quantitative indicators of risk of power supply failure of responsible consumers due to failures of electrical equipment of the EPS. Target setting. Usually, to provide the reliability of the EPS, it is designed in such a way that the shutdown of one or more elements at maximum load does not lead to unacceptable deviations of the regime parameters or reduce the load of consumers (criterion N-i). This approach is deterministic, because it does not take into account the probability of accidents and does not provide a quantitative characteristics of the reliability of the EPS. In the context of the development of market relations in the power industry of Ukraine, when the problem of reliability is increasing and it is considered as a service, its quantitative assessment based on the definition of risk is more objective and complete. Actual scientific researches and issue analysis. The latest publications on the development of models for assessing the technical condition, determining the probability of failure of electrical equipment and risk analysis in complex EPS were considered. Uninvestigated parts of general matters defining. In spite of a significant number of papers dedicated to the analysis of the operational reliability of the EPS, there is a problem of complex modeling of the technical condition of electrical equipment and regims of the EPS to determine the risk index as an integral indicator of the operation of the EPS, which is determined by the value of the criticality of failure of individual subsystems, which depends on their probability of failure, recovery time and the severity of losses. The research objective. The purpose of this work is to create a fuzzy mathematical model, algorithm and software to determine the index of risk of violation of the regime of the EPS in case of failure of the individual subsystems with responsible consumers. The statement of basic materials. It is proposed to use the integral index of risk of functioning, the level of which depends on the criticality of failures of individual subsystems of the EPS and in particular, nodes with consumers of different kind and category, when assessing the reliability of the EPS. To solve these problems a fuzzy mathematical model and an algorithm for an aggregated estimation of the EPS index risk in the case of failures of individual subsystems have been constructed. For the test scheme of the EPS, quantitative characteristics of the risk of operation of the EPS in case of failures of electrical equipment and load units with responsible consumers are obtained. Conclusions. Evaluation of the regime reliability of modern EPS is advisable to determine on the basis of the integrated risk index of functioning. A fuzzy mathematical model and an algorithm for the aggregated assessment of the risk index of EPS in case of failures of individual load units due to failures of electrical equipment of EPS are proposed. A complex modeling of the technical condition of electrical equipment and regims of EPS to determine the criticality of failures of individual subsystems with responsible consumers was carried out.
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