The contribution of snow avalanches to the seasonal snow accumulation on a glacier is among the least studied components of the glacier's mass balance. The methods for the numerical assessment of avalanche accumulation are still under development, which is related to poor avalanche data availability and difficulties in obtaining such data on most of mountain glaciers. We propose a possible methodology for the numerical assessment of snow avalanche contribution to snow accumulation at mountain glaciers based on DEM and weather data analysis using GIS and numerical modeling of snow avalanches. The developed methodology consists of the following steps: terrain analysis; weather data analysis; snow avalanche volume assessment during an analyzed balance year; numerical simulation of snow avalanches using RAMMS; evaluation of snow avalanches contribution into a glacier accumulation. The proposed methodology was tested on three glaciers located in the Inner Tien Shan: Batysh Sook, № 354 and Karabatkak during the 2015/16 balance year. To evaluate snow avalanche contribution to the seasonal accumulation, we reconstructed avalanche release zones that were most probably active during the 2015/16 balance year and corresponding snow fracture height in each of these zones. The numerical simulations of most probable released snow avalanches during the winter period 2015/16 using avalanche dynamics software RAMMS were performed and compared with the field observations and UAV orthophoto image from July 2016. The outlines of avalanches deposits were realistically reproduced by RAMMS according to the results of field observation. The estimated share of snow avalanche contribution to the accumulation on the research glaciers during the 2015/16 balance year turned out to be: Batysh Sook -7,4±2,5%; № 354 -2,2±0,7%; Karabatkak -10,8±3,6% of the total accumulation. The next step would be to test the proposed methodology based on the data and regional dependences from the Inner Tien Shan in other mountainous regions. This methodology is applicable in the regions where DEMs, regular meteorological observations as well as data on the regional avalanche formation factors are available. Citation: Turchaninova A.S., Lazarev A.V., Marchenko E.S., Seliverstov Yu.G., Sokratov S.A., Petrakov D.A., Barandun M., Kenzhebaev R., Saks T. Methods of snow avalanche nourishment assessment (on the example of three Tian Shan glaciers). Led i Sneg. Ice and Snow. 2019. 59 (4): 460-474. [In Russian]. https://doi.Ключевые слова: лавинное питание, ледник, математическое моделирование, снежная лавина, RAMMS. Предложена новая методика количественной оценки лавинного питания ледников, основанная на анализе рельефа и данных метеорологических наблюдений с использованием методов геоинформационного картографирования и математического моделирования. Рассмотрены результаты её применения на трёх ледниках Тянь-Шаня: Западный Суёк, № 354, Карабаткак.
Изменчивость снежного покрова, лавины, мониторинг, оценка устойчивости снега. Avalanches, monitoring, snow cover variability, snow stability estimate. Толщина, плотность, прочность на сдвиг и температура снега на горных склонах рассматриваются как случайные поля или процессы. Параметры этих полей (процессов) оценены в нескольких географических районах. Показано, что ошибки оценки устойчивости снега зависят от этих параметров, числа точечных измерений, а также методов измерений. Рассматриваются ошибки различных методов пространственной и временной интерпретации измерений характеристик снега. Представлены результаты этих исследований для Хибин, Алтая, Байкальского хребта и Кавказа. Мониторинг устойчивости снега на склоне, как и прогнозирование лавин, труднее всего вести в районах с большой пространственной изменчивостью снега, к которым в первую очередь относятся Хибины. Thickness, density, shearing strength, and temperature of snow on mountain slopes are considered as stochastic fields or processes. Parameters of these fields (processes) were estimated in several geographical regions. Errors of snow stability estimation are shown to be depending on the above parameters, quantity of point measurements, and the measurement technique. Errors of different methods of space and time interpretation of measurements of the snow characteristics are discussed. Results of these studies performed on slope of the Khibiny Mountains, the Altai, the Baikal Mountains, and the Caucasus are presented in the article. Monitoring of the snow cover stability on slopes and the avalanche forecasting are the most difficult actions to be carried out in areas with great spatial variability of snow. The Khibiny Mountains are first of all such area among other ones.
Горнолыжные курорты, риск, снежный покров. Risk, ski resorts, snow cover. На примере района Красной Поляны рассматривается зависимость надёжности функционирования горнолыжных курортов от продолжительности залегания устойчивого снежного покрова в условиях изменяющегося климата. Делается вывод о необходимости при организации новых зимних курортов детального анализа существующей климатической ситуации и возможных её изменений. Оцениваются вероятные экономические потери для действующих горнолыжных курортов в данном районе. Dependence of a mountain ski resort functioning on duration of the snow cover availability in the area under conditions of climate changes is considered by the example of Russian mountain resort Krasnaya Polyana. Probable economic losses are estimated for mountain ski resorts, located in this region. The conclusion is drawn, that both the present climatic situation and the scenarios of possible climate change should be analyzed in details before construction of new resorts.
The legislation of the Russian Federation establishes the need to take into account hazardous natural processes and their parameters in territorial planning, as well as presentation of them in the relevant documentation in the form of maps. In a number of countries, there is a long-standing practice of mapping the avalanche zones basing on the definition of different levels of danger, which are used to limit or ban the construction in avalanche zones, as well as to project the anti-avalanche activities. Russia has experience in assessing risk and mapping the avalanche danger, but the practice of making such plans in our country is still not developed. The purpose of this work is to determine and plot on map avalanche zones on the example of one of the actively developed mountain regions of Russia. The all-season mountain resort «Gorky Gorod», located on Krasnaya Polyana in the Krasnodar region, was chosen as the object of study. Two approaches to the accounting and mapping of avalanche hazard in territorial planning were tested. In the first case, occurrence and pressure of avalanches were the determining factors. In the second case, critical avalanche pressure values were used to determine their destructive impact effect. To determine indexes (indicators) of the avalanche hazard, the simulation of snow avalanches in the RAMMS program was performed. According to the results of modeling for area of the «Gorky Gorod» resort schemes of the avalanche zones were constructed on the basis of two different approaches, having no account for the anti-avalanche measures used there. A more detailed plan based on a combination of these two approaches had also been drawn up and analyzed. The required criteria for determining the boundaries of zones with different levels of the danger are the subject for discussion. However, the proposed division of avalanchedangerous territory into zones with different levels of the hazard at the stage of territorial planning meets the requirements of the legislation and contributes to improving human security, reducing the avalanche risk, and mitigating the consequences of emergencies caused by avalanches.
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