Despite the availability of more sophisticated methods, a popular way to estimate a Pareto exponent is still to run an OLS regression: log(Rank)=a-b log(Size), and take b as an estimate of the Pareto exponent. The reason for this popularity is arguably the simplicity and robustness of this method. Unfortunately, this procedure is strongly biased in small samples. We provide a simple practical remedy for this bias, and propose that, if one wants to use an OLS regression, one should use the Rank-1/2, and run log(Rank-1/2)=a-b log(Size). The shift of 1/2 is optimal, and reduces the bias to a leading order. The standard error on the Pareto exponent zeta is not the OLS standard error, but is asymptotically (2/n)^(1/2) zeta. Numerical results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed approach over the standard OLS estimation procedures and indicate that it performs well under dependent heavy-tailed processes exhibiting deviations from power laws. The estimation procedures considered are illustrated using an empirical application to Zipf's law for the U.S. city size distribution.analogues of relations (1.1). The reason for popularity of the OLS approach to tail index estimation is arguably the simplicity and robustness of this method. In various frameworks, the log-log rank-size regressions of form (1.3) in the case γ = 0 and closely related procedures were employed, among other
We develop a general approach to robust inference about a scalar parameter when the data is potentially heterogeneous and correlated in a largely unknown way. The key ingredient is the following result of Bakirov and Székely (2005) concerning the small sample properties of the standard t−test: For a significance level of 5% or lower, the t−test remains conservative for underlying observations that are independent and Gaussian with heterogenous variances. One might thus conduct robust large sample inference as follows: partition the data into q ≥ 2 groups, estimate the model for each group and conduct a standard t−test with the resulting q parameter estimators. This results in valid inference as long as the groups are chosen in a way that ensures the parameter estimators to be asymptotically independent, unbiased and Gaussian of possibly different variances. We provide examples of how to apply this approach to time series, panel, clustered and spatially correlated data.
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