Health risk assessment and prediction of the disease occurrence among workers of metallurgical enterprises is warranted by the current state of industrial development. The aim of the study was to select criteria to improve reliability of the assessment of professional risk in the conditions of a reduction in the number of employees in certain occupational groups. Methods. The working conditions of employees of the main professional groups of the smelting shop on the basis of a modern metallurgical enterprise for the production of high-carbon ferrochrome were studied. Priority harmful factors have been identified for assessing the risk of workers' health - microclimate, noise, air pollution with aerosols of mainly fibrogenic effect. The occupational health risk of workers has been estimated according to morbidity indicators with temporary disability depending on age and length of service. Results. A direct statistically significant etiological relationship between working conditions and the incidence of smelting shop workers was revealed. The results of the analysis of disease incidence risk growth rate depending on age and employment duration (annual increase in risk) of employees are presented. Annual growth of disease incidence cases depending on employment duration (0,2 ± 0,03) is significantly higher than depending on the age (0,03 ± 0,005). An express assessment has been developed to predict the risk of exposure to harmful factors for this production, which can be used to improve measures for managing professional risk in the metallurgical and other industries. An express assessment has been developed to predict the risk of exposure to harmful factors for this production, which can be used to improve measures for managing professional risk in the metallurgical and other industries. Conclusion. A high occupational risk of smelting workers in the production of high-carbon ferrochrome indicates the influence of harmful production factors on the incidence rates from the first years of work, which should be taken into account when conducting preventive measures.
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