The method proposed for prediction of the grass fi re ignition and development during spring-autumn fi re period is based on the author's probability model for prediction of wild fi re ignition depending on natural and man-made conditions, and the Australian McArthur model for forecast of non-forest fi re development. This method has been verifi ed on fi re data of 2015-2017 in the Jewish Autonomous Region. Calculations were done with the help of electronic maps of forest area quarters and the network of operational-territorial units (OTU) of the agricultural lands designed at 2.5 x 2.5 km cells. The Earth's remote sensing data on non-forest fi res in 2010-2014 and information on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during periods before and after growing season (April 23-May 13, and September 24-October 10) are used. The highest probability of the fi re effect on agricultural land is found at a distance of 3 km from the roads and 3-6 km from the urban areas. The spatial coincidence of OTU with real and predicted grassfi res and the validity of the forecast in spring before growing season are considered to be satisfactory. The suggested method of predicting grassfi re ignition and development has a considerable practical importance and can be applied in the development of fi re-incident management strategies and measures to mitigate a threat to human and environmental health.
The article is concerned with the research and development of a geo information system for forecasting fire danger according to weather conditions. A structured approach is used to introduce the workflow process of the system in IDEF0 technique: generating data files/array, assessing the current fire danger, a spatial fire danger forecasted information and fire breaking-out, verifying the forecast index reliability and fire probability. The two-tiered architecture of a distributed data system and functional modules consisting of presentation logic, domain logic and database logic is focused on. Generation of meteorological data arrays is organized in a hypercube form and rated values of fire danger index. The surface planes of a hypercube include the month of fire danger season as well as the title and index of the weather station number, meteorological parameters and fire danger characteristics. The system is tested in the territory of the Jewish Autonomous Region in order to construct fire probability maps according to weather conditions using the developed geographic information system based on MapInfo Professional 15 and programming environments MapBasic and RAD Studio Delphi 2010. Forecast verification of fire danger index of three days lead-time amounts to 85% on the first day, it is 80%on the 2nd day, they are 70% and 65% on the third and fourth days respectively. The probability of vegetation fires in the territory of Birobidzhan subdivision of the JAR Forest Department is calculated depending on weather conditions. The forecast success rate is 75%.
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