The paper outlines a numerical method for stability analysis of cylindrical shells with initial imperfections. We solve a nonlinear buckling problem for a cylindrical shell with variable wall thickness under surface pressure. The imperfections of the shell are modeled as the first buckling mode. A probabilistic approach is used to determine the reliability against buckling of the cylindrical shell with the probability density of initial imperfections represented by uniform distribution, triangular distribution, or Gaussian distribution Keywords: cylindrical shell, reliability against buckling, probabilistic approach, initial imperfections Introduction. The current state of the art permits creating highly reliable structures. Thin-walled shells lose their load-carrying capacity by buckling [2-8, 10, 12-15], which characterizes their reliability. In this paper, we propose a numerical method for the stability analysis of cylindrical shells with initial imperfections [5, 6] and use the probabilistic approach developed in [1] and tested in [11] to determine the reliability against buckling of a cylindrical shell with initial imperfections and variable wall thickness under surface pressure.1. Problem Statement. The reliability of structures is known to be strongly dependent on the probabilistic characteristics of the initial imperfections. By defining the probability density of initial imperfections, we can find the probability density of the critical load as a scalar random variable. The functional dependence of the critical load on the initial imperfections permits defining the reliability against buckling as the probability that a structure will not buckle if the load is less than a certain level:
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