Active sea‐ice production in Antarctic coastal polynyas causes dense water formation, finally leading to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation. This study gives the first mapping of sea ice production in the Antarctic Ocean, based on heat‐flux calculation with ice thickness data derived from satellite data. The highest ice production occurs in the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya region. The ice production there decreased by ∼30% from the 1990s to the 2000s, which can be one candidate for causing the recent freshening of AABW. The Cape Darnley polynya in East Antarctica is found to be the second highest production area, suggesting a possible AABW formation area. According to our estimation, around 10% of Southern Ocean sea ice is produced in the major Antarctic coastal polynyas. The mapping provides surface heat‐ and salt‐flux conditions in the ice‐covered region, which have not been well understood.

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Sinking of dense water from Antarctic coastal polynyas produces Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which is the densest water in the global overturning circulation and is a key player in climate change as a significant sink for heat and carbon dioxide. Very recent studies have suggested that landfast sea ice (fast ice) plays an important role in the formation and variability of the polynyas and possibly AABW. However, they have been limited to regional and case investigations only. This study provides the first coincident circumpolar mapping of Antarctic coastal polynyas and fast ice. The map reveals that most of the polynyas are formed on the western side of fast ice, indicating an important role of fast ice in the polynya formation. Winds diverging from a boundary comprising both coastline and fast ice are the primary determinant of polynya formation. The blocking effect of fast ice on westward sea ice advection by the coastal current would be another key factor. These effects on the variability in sea ice production for 13 major polynyas are evaluated quantitatively. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that a drastic change in fast ice extent, which is particularly vulnerable to climate change, causes dramatic changes in the polynyas and possibly AABW formation that can potentially contribute to further climate change. These results suggest that fast ice and precise polynya processes should be addressed by next-generation models to produce more accurate climate projections. This study provides the boundary and validation data of fast ice and sea ice production for such models.

A fourth production region for the globally important Antarctic bottom water has been attributed to dense shelf water formation in the Cape Darnley Polynya, adjoining Prydz Bay in East Antarctica. Here we show new observations from CTD-instrumented elephant seals in 2011–2013 that provide the first complete assessment of dense shelf water formation in Prydz Bay. After a complex evolution involving opposing contributions from three polynyas (positive) and two ice shelves (negative), dense shelf water (salinity 34.65–34.7) is exported through Prydz Channel. This provides a distinct, relatively fresh contribution to Cape Darnley bottom water. Elsewhere, dense water formation is hindered by the freshwater input from the Amery and West Ice Shelves into the Prydz Bay Gyre. This study highlights the susceptibility of Antarctic bottom water to increased freshwater input from the enhanced melting of ice shelves, and ultimately the potential collapse of Antarctic bottom water formation in a warming climate.

Enhanced sea ice production (SIP) in Antarctic coastal polynyas forms dense shelf water (DSW), leading to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation that ultimately drives the lower limb of the meridional overturning circulation. Some studies suggest that the variability of SIP in Antarctic coastal polynyas is driven by the influence of atmospheric forcing, i.e., surface winds and air temperature. Our previous mapping of SIP in 13 major Antarctic coastal polynyas from 1992 to 2007, using a heat flux calculation with ice thickness data derived from satellite data, is extended here to examine the interannual and seasonal variability of SIP from 1992 to 2013. The interannual variability of total ice production correlates more strongly with polynya extent than with atmospheric forcing, with the exception of the Shackleton Polynya, which correlates well with wind. There is no coherent signal in the interannual variability between the major Antarctic coastal polynyas. We find that stochastic changes to the coastal “icescape,” i.e., ice shelves, floating glaciers, fast ice, together with offshore first‐year ice, are also important factors driving SIP variability on multiyear time scales. Both the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya and Mertz Glacier Polynya experienced a significant reduction in SIP due to calving events and the repositioning of icebergs and fast ice. Our results also show opposing trends between polynya‐based SIP and sea ice extent in key regions of Antarctic sea ice change. Close monitoring of coastal icescape dynamics and change is essential to better understand the long‐term impact of coastal polynya variability and its influence on regional AABW production.