The paper advocates a new concept for risk control that makes up one organic closed loop feedback system, with the following stages: 1) the evaluation of the positive and negative features of situation under investigation through strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis, 2) the determination of the level of fuzzy risk concealed in this situation (using RISK evaluation), and 3) the proposal of leverage, recommendations, or actions (through LEVERAGE aggregation) enabling the improvement of target performance. Useful fundamental approaches, definitions, and particularities of this concept concerning SWOT, RISK and LEVERAGES are examined, and for the first time the network type called here the fuzzy SWOT map (FSM) is introduced. This newly proposed instrument appeared as a result of a natural extension of fuzzy cognitive maps paradigm enhanced by dynamic computing with words (CWW) elements and possibilities to use the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) in the form of fuzzy inference rules. The concept serves for development of functional organization of control systems of complex and dynamically interacting projects or situations and for implementation of adequate set of tools satisfying the concrete system's requirements. The results of conceptual modeling and the confirmation of the vitality of the approach are presented based on the simplified example of a risk-control system case covering three interacting projects in a complex environment of city development.
There are different approaches in different areas of what the risk is. ISO 31000 risk management standards describe risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives. Many existing risk assessment procedures are based on the assumption that risk is the amount of any damage or loss multiplied by the probability of an event that could cause the damage. We are proposing a new risk approach, based on Hillson’s positive risk philosophy, that risk is not just a threat but also a composition of new opportunities, efforts that need to be put in, and uncertainty. For this approach, we composed a risk formula and a methodology based on that formula. A prototypical software tool was developed, and an experiment was performed using this tool to evaluate the risk of several interconnected projects and validate the developed risk assessment methodology. It should be mentioned that, in the methodology, the decision-making process is performed traceably; therefore, it can be stated that it has explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) traits.
The use of artificial intelligence in geriatrics is very promising and relevant, as the diagnosis of a geriatric patient is a complex, experience-based, and time-consuming process that involves a variety of questionnaires and subjective and inaccurate patient responses. This paper proposes the explainable artificial intelligence-based (XAI) clinical decision support system (CDSS) to assess nutrition-related factors (symptoms) and to determine the likelihood of geriatric patient health risks associated with four syndromes: malnutrition, oropharyngeal dysphagia, dehydration, and eating disorders in dementia. The proposed system’s prototype was tested under real conditions at the geriatric department of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Hospital. The subjects of this study were 83 geriatric patients with various health conditions. The assessments of the nutritional status and syndromes of the patients provided by the CDSS were compared with the diagnoses of the physicians obtained using standard assessment methods. The results show that proposed CDSS can efficiently diagnose nutrition-related geriatric syndromes with high accuracy: 87.95% for malnutrition, 87.95% for oropharyngeal dysphagia, 90.36% for eating disorders in dementia, and 86.75% for dehydration. The research confirms that the proposed XAI-based CDSS is an effective tool, able to assess nutrition-related health risk factors and their dependencies and, in some cases, makes even a more accurate decision than a less experienced physician.
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