Nigeria is one of the most dynamic economies in Africa. Strong GDP and population growth coupled with urbanization trends place tremendous pressures on natural resources and the food systems that are dependent on them. Understanding the impact of these “mega trends” is important to identify key leverage points for navigating towards improved nutrition and food security in Nigeria. This paper contributes to the Foresight Project of the Food Systems for Healthier Diets which aims to analyse how the food system in Nigeria is expected to transform in the next decades, and to identify the leverage points for making sure that the transformation contributes to balanced consumer diets. For the food systems foresight, a well-established global economy-wide model, MAGNET, is applied that enables to capture the interlinkages among different food industry players in one consistent framework. By linking MAGNET to the GENUS nutritional database, it is further possible to relate the developments occurring on a macro-level with detailed macro and micronutrient consumption. Model projections suggest that a process of intensification of agriculture in combination with land substitution appears critical for the evolution of food and nutrition security, and for shifts towards healthy diets for the population. Intensification results in greater diversity of the production systems, which in turn cascades into positive effects on the diversity in the food supply and better food security outcomes.

De Russische invasie in Oekraïne kan de voedselonzekerheid in de wereld verergeren, aangezien beide landen een belangrijke exporteur van granen en andere landbouwproducten zijn. In deze modelgebaseerde scenariostudie worden de middellangetermijneffecten van de oorlog op de landbouwproductie, de handelsstromen, de marktprijzen en de voedselzekerheid gekwantificeerd. De scenario's richten zich op de mogelijke gevolgen van de macro-economische gevolgen en de gevolgen voor de landbouwproductie in Oekraïne, de gevolgen van handelssancties tegen Rusland, en de daarmee samenhangende hogere energieprijzen. Vanuit het oogpunt van de voedselzekerheid kan worden geconcludeerd dat er op mondiaal niveau voldoende voedsel is, maar dat hogere voedselprijzen een probleem kunnen worden voor een deel van de bevolking dat een laag inkomen heeft en een groot deel van zijn voedsel aan granen besteedt. Voor sommige landen die sterk afhankelijk zijn van de invoer van Oekraïens en Russisch graan, zoals Egypte, Turkije en het Midden-Oosten, zal de beschikbaarheid van voedsel enigszins onder druk komen te staan. Voor de EU zijn de gevolgen voor de voedselzekerheid zeer gering, aangezien de beschikbaarheid van voedsel in de EU geen probleem is en de bevolking over het algemeen een klein deel van haar voeding aan op granen gebaseerde voedingsproducten besteedt.The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to exacerbate food insecurity around the world as both countries are a major exporter of grains and other agricultural products. In this model based scenario study, medium-term effects of the war on agricultural production, trade flows, market prices, and food security are quantified. The scenarios focus on the possible consequences of macro-economic and agricultural production impacts in Ukraine, consequences of trade sanction measures against Russia, and related higher energy prices. From a food security perspective, we can conclude that there is enough food on the global level, but higher food prices could become a problem for a part of the population that has a low income and spends a large part of their food on cereals. For some countries highly dependent on imports of Ukrainian and Russian cereals like Egypt, Turkey and Middle East, food availability will come under some pressure. Food security impacts are very minor for the EU, as food availability is not a problem in the EU and in general people spend a small part on cereal-based food products.

A predominantly plant-based diet would aid low- and middle- income countries to deviate from the existing negative trends in health and environmental outcomes. Taking Mexico as case study, we assessed the impact of adopting such a diet on multiple food system indicators and identified a menu of fiscal policies to reach the intake targets determined in the EAT-Lancet framework. A macroeconomic model named MAGNET and a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model were employed for the analysis. Two diets were modelled, an adaptation of the EAT diet considering existing intakes in Mexico and a version proposed here based on traditional eating patterns (i.e., Milpa diet). Our results showcased that the magnitude of the changes needed to attain the proposed dietary intakes is such that fiscal policies alone were found implausible. We thus modelled the change to two thirds of the EAT targets by 2040 (the goal was 100% of the EAT targets by 2050). Still, to keep fiscal policies feasible (up to +/-80% ad-valorem tax rates) 75% of the required change in consumption would need to come from other strategies. Substantial environmental gains are expected from the adoption of the EAT diet, and at the same time, foods would be more affordable for all but the poorer households. At the household level, subsidies would improve the intakes of fruits, vegetables and added fats, but the targets would be attained only by the highest income households and possibly by the urban households. Subsidies would be ineffective to reach the intake target for plant-based proteins. Given the projected progress, increased taxes are strongly advised for the foods with targeted intake reductions, particularly for the well-off and urban households. Policy makers should be cautious in the design of taxes to dairy foods, as these could lead to excessive intake reductions among vulnerable populations.

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