The total organic carbon content (TOC) is a core indicator for shale gas reservoir evaluations. Machine learning-based models can quickly and accurately predict TOC, which is of great significance for the production of shale gas. Based on conventional logs, the measured TOC values, and other data of 9 typical wells in the Jiaoshiba area of the Sichuan Basin, this paper performed a Bayesian linear regression and applied a random forest machine learning model to predict TOC values of the shale from the Wufeng Formation and the lower part of the Longmaxi Formation. The results showed that the TOC value prediction accuracy was improved by more than 50% by using the well-trained machine learning models compared with the traditional Δ Log R method in an overmature and tight shale. Using the halving random search cross-validation method to optimize hyperparameters can greatly improve the speed of building the model. Furthermore, excluding the factors that affect the log value other than the TOC and taking the corrected data as input data for training could improve the prediction accuracy of the random forest model by approximately 5%. Data can be easily updated with machine learning models, which is of primary importance for improving the efficiency of shale gas exploration and development.
The strong heterogeneity characteristics of deep-buried clastic low-permeability reservoirs may lead to great risks in hydrocarbon exploration and development, which makes the accurate identification of reservoir lithofacies crucial for improving the obtained exploration results. Due to the very limited core data acquired from deep drilling, lithofacies logging identification has become the most important method for comprehensively obtaining the rock information of deep-buried reservoirs and is a fundamental task for carrying out reservoir characterization and geological modeling. In this study, a machine learning method is introduced to lithofacies logging identification, to explore an accurate lithofacies identification method for deep fluvial-delta sandstone reservoirs with frequent lithofacies changes. Here Sangonghe Formation in the Central Junggar Basin of China is taken as an example. The K-means-based synthetic minority oversampling technique (K-means SMOTE) is employed to solve the problem regarding the imbalanced lithofacies data categories used to calibrate logging data, and a probabilistic calibration method is introduced to correct the likelihood function. To address the situation in which traditional machine learning methods ignore the geological deposition process, we introduce a depositional prior for controlling the vertical spreading process based on a Markov chain and propose an improved Bayesian inversion process for training on the log data to identify lithofacies. The results of a series of experiments show that, compared with the traditional machine learning method, the new method improves the recognition accuracy by 20%, and the predicted petrographic vertical distribution results are consistent with geological constraints. In addition, SMOTE and probabilistic calibration can effectively handle data imbalance problems so that different categories can be adequately learned. Also the introduction of geological prior has a positive impact on the overall distribution, which significantly improves the accuracy and recall rate of the method. According to this comprehensive analysis, the proposed method greatly enhanced the identification of the lithofacies distributions in the Sangonghe Formation. Therefore, this method can provide a tool for logging lithofacies interpretation of deep and strongly heterogeneous clastic reservoirs in fluvial-delta and other depositional environments.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.