Accelerating the construction of a strong livestock industry is of great significance to better guarantee the supply of livestock products and improve the quality, efficiency and competitiveness of the industry. This study constructed an evaluation index system including supply security, scientific and technological support, industrial resilience and international trade to evaluate the strength of China’s livestock industry, and then conducted an in-depth analysis of the issues and challenges of the construction of a livestock powerhouse. The research results showed that China’s livestock industry ranked 5th in the world, such that China was transitioning from being a large-producing livestock country to being a livestock powerhouse, although improvement was still needed to reach the goal. There were significant differences across species. China’s layer industry was a world leader; the pig, sheep and goat, and broiler industries were strong; and the beef cattle and dairy industries were weaker. There are still many challenges, such as the fact that the domestic supply security capacity needs to be strengthened, the level of scientific and technological support needs to be improved, the modern operation system needs to be sound, the industry and supply chain are not highly resilient, the international trade risks are increasing, and the policy support system needs to be improved. It is recommended to improve the institutional mechanism for the construction of the livestock industry, promote a high level of self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, build a modern livestock operation system, enhance the resilience and security level of the industry and supply chain, and consolidate and expand international trade and cooperation.
Strengthening the analysis and risk assessment of the pig epidemic will help to better prevent and mitigate epidemic risks and promote the high-quality development of the pig industry. Based on a systematic understanding of live pig epidemics, a risk assessment index system was constructed, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of pig epidemics in China were explored by the entropy method. In recent years, the overall trend in pig epidemics over time first increased and then decreased; in space, the acceleration of the spread of epidemics across the country weakened. China still faces challenges, including many types and a wide range of diseases, large total livestock breeding and weak epidemic prevention and control capacity, and a large risk of introduced foreign animal epidemics. The spatial and temporal variations in the pig epidemic risk were obvious; one high-risk area, two medium–high-risk areas and 10 medium-risk areas have been found in recent years, during which time, the epidemic risk was highest in Beijing, Hainan, Liaoning, Tibet and Zhejiang. However, there were significant differences in the regional distribution of the risk level of pig epidemics in different years. To further build a secure “defense system” for the high-quality development of the pig industry, it is recommended to improve the monitoring and early warning system of pig epidemic risk, perfect the pig epidemic prevention and control system, and strengthen the regional collaboration mechanism of epidemic prevention and control.
It is important to accelerate the reasonable adjustment of planting structure to stabilize the market supply and demand of feed grains, and promote the high-quality development of livestock industry. Based on the feed grain and livestock data from 2000 to 2020, a partial equilibrium model was constructed to predict the future trends of feed grain and livestock breeding and to simulate the impact of the adjustment policies of the planting structure, such as"grain to feed"crop conversion, on the demand and supply of feed grains and livestock. The results show that: (1) Under normal conditions, the supply and demand of China' s feed grains will continue to increase; however, feed grain yields exhibit a declining trend. The supply of domestic feed grain needs to be supplemented by imports. By 2025, China' s feed grain supply is expected to reach 336 million tons, of which domestic output, imports, and exports will account for 209 million, 127 million, and 231 thousand tons, respectively; the scale of livestock breeding is expected to reach 4.25 billion sheep units. The demand for feed grains is expected to reach 306 million tons, and the price of feed grains is expected to rise to RMB 3.04 yuan/kg. (2) The implementation of the"grain to feed"policy is still feasible. Furthermore, the promotion effect of the continuous reduction of the acreage of feed grains on the growth of the scale of livestock breeding is more significant than that of expanding the acreage of feed grains. The implementation of the"grain to feed"policy has decreased the output of feed grain, an effect that has contributed to the continuous expansion of the livestock breeding scale, resulting in the growth of feed grain imports while increasing the price of feed grain. If the"grain to feed"policy aims to increase the livestock breeding scale, it would be more appropriate to maintain a relatively large reduction area during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. However, increasing the support for planting grain and forage maize could be considered. The research results can provide support for the design of planting structure adjustment programs and consolidate the foundation of feed grain and forage safety for livestock breeding.
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