Short-term electric load forecasting plays a significant role in the safe and stable operation of the LO system and power market transactions. In recent years, with the development of new energy sources, more and more sources have been integrated into the grid. This has posed a serious challenge to short-term electric load forecasting. Focusing on load series with non-linear and time-varying characteristics, an approach to short-term electric load forecasting using a “decomposition and ensemble” framework is proposed in this paper. The method is verified using hourly load data from Oslo and the surrounding areas of Norway. First, the load series is decomposed into five components by variational mode decomposition (VMD). Second, a support vector regression (SVR) forecasting model is established for the five components to predict the electric load components, and the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to optimize the cost and gamma parameters of SVR. Finally, the predicted values of the five components are superimposed to obtain the final electric load forecasting results. In this paper, the proposed method is compared with GWO-SVR without modal decomposition and using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to test the impact of VMD on prediction. This paper also compares the proposed method with the SVR model using VMD and other optimization algorithms. The four evaluation indexes of the proposed method are optimal: MAE is 71.65 MW, MAPE is 1.41%, MSE is 10,461.32, and R2 is 0.9834. This indicates that the proposed method has a good application prospect for short-term electric load forecasting.
Commercial load is an essential demand-side resource. Monitoring commercial loads helps not only commercial customers understand their energy usage to improve energy efficiency but also helps electric utilities develop demand-side management strategies to ensure stable operation of the power system. However, existing non-intrusive methods cannot monitor multiple commercial loads simultaneously and do not consider the high correlation and severe imbalance among commercial loads. Therefore, this paper proposes a deep learning-based non-intrusive commercial load monitoring method to solve these problems. The method takes the total power signal of the commercial building as input and directly determines the state and power consumption of several specific appliances. The key elements of the method are a new neural network structure called TTRNet and a new loss function called MLFL. TTRNet is a multi-label classification model that can autonomously learn correlation information through its unique network structure. MLFL is a loss function specifically designed for multi-label classification tasks, which solves the imbalance problem and improves the monitoring accuracy for challenging loads. To validate the proposed method, experiments are performed separately in seen and unseen scenarios using a public dataset. In the seen scenario, the method achieves an average F1 score of 0.957, which is 7.77% better than existing multi-label classification methods. In the unseen scenario, the average F1 score is 0.904, which is 1.92% better than existing methods. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper is both effective and practical.
Passengers' demands for riding comfort have been getting higher and higher as the high-speed railway develops. Scientific methods to analyze the interior noise of the high-speed train are needed and the operational transfer path analysis (OTPA) method provides a theoretical basis and guidance for the noise control of the train and overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional method, which has high test efficiency and can be carried out during the working state of the targeted machine. The OTPA model is established from the aspects of "path reference point-target point" and "sound source reference point-target point". As for the mechanism of the noise transmission path, an assumption is made that the direct sound propagation is ignored, and the symmetric sound source and the symmetric path are merged. Using the operational test data and the OTPA method, combined with the results of spherical array sound source identification, the path contribution and sound source contribution of the interior noise are analyzed, respectively, from aspects of the total value and spectrum. The results show that the OTPA conforms to the calculation results of the spherical array sound source identification. At low speed, the contribution of the floor path and the contribution of the bogie sources are dominant. When the speed is greater than 300 km/h, the contribution of the roof path is dominant. Moreover, for the carriage with a pantograph, the lifted pantograph is an obvious source. The noise from the exterior sources of the train transfer into the interior mainly through the form of structural excitation, and the contribution of air excitation is non-significant. Certain analyses of train parts provide guides for the interior noise control.
Short-term load forecasting is an important part of load forecasting, which is of great significance to the optimal power flow and power supply guarantee of the power system. In this paper, we proposed the load series reconstruction method combined improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) with sample entropy (SE). The load series is decomposed by ICEEMDAN and is reconstructed into a trend component, periodic component, and random component by comparing with the sample entropy of the original series. Extreme learning machine optimized by salp swarm algorithm (SSA-ELM) is used to predict respectively, and the final prediction value is obtained by superposition of the prediction results of the three components. Then, the prediction error of the training set is divided into four load intervals according to the predicted value, and the kernel probability density is estimated to obtain the error distribution of the training set. Combining the predicted value of the prediction set with the error distribution of the corresponding load interval, the prediction load interval can be obtained. The prediction method is verified by taking the hourly load data of a region in Denmark in 2019 as an example. The final experimental results show that the proposed method has a high prediction accuracy for short-term load forecasting.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.