In this paper, we evaluate the long-term climate sensitivity and global carbon (C) cycle implications of northern peatland C dynamics by synthesizing available data and providing a conceptual framework for understanding the dominant controls, processes, and interactions of peatland initiation and C accumulation. Northern peatlands are distributed throughout the climate domain of the boreal forest/taiga biome, but important differences between peatland regions are evident in annual temperature vs. precipitation (T-P) space, suggesting complex hydroclimatic controls through various seasonal thermal-moisture associations. Of 2380 available basal peat dates from northern peatlands, nearly half show initiation before 8000 calendar years (cal years) B.P. Peat-core data from sites spanning peatland T-P space show large variations in apparent C accumulation rates during the Holocene, ranging from 8.4 in the Arctic to 38.0 g C m-2 a-1 in west Siberia, with an overall time-weighted average rate of 18.6 g C m-2 a-1. Sites with multiple age determinations show millennial-scale variations, with the highest C accumulation generally at 11,000-8000 cal years B.P. The early Holocene was likely a period of rapid peatland expansion and C accumulation. For example, maximum peat expansion and accumulation in Alaska occurred at this time when climate was warmest and possibly driest, suggesting the dominant role of productivity over decomposition processes or a difference in precipitation seasonality. Northern peatland C dynamics contributed to the peak in atmospheric CH 4 and the decrease in CO 2 concentrations in the early Holocene. This synthesis of data, processes, and ideas provides baselines for understanding the sensitivity of these C-rich ecosystems in a changing climate.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids thus fail to reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions are controlled and most terrestrial species reside. Here we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all of the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding 2 m gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (3.6 ± 2.3°C warmer than gridded air temperature), whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (0.7 ± 2.3°C cooler). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets underpin that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining global gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Glacial−interglacial variations in CO2 and methane in polar ice cores have been attributed, in part, to changes in global wetland extent, but the wetland distribution before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka to 18 ka) remains virtually unknown. We present a study of global peatland extent and carbon (C) stocks through the last glacial cycle (130 ka to present) using a newly compiled database of 1,063 detailed stratigraphic records of peat deposits buried by mineral sediments, as well as a global peatland model. Quantitative agreement between modeling and observations shows extensive peat accumulation before the LGM in northern latitudes (>40°N), particularly during warmer periods including the last interglacial (130 ka to 116 ka, MIS 5e) and the interstadial (57 ka to 29 ka, MIS 3). During cooling periods of glacial advance and permafrost formation, the burial of northern peatlands by glaciers and mineral sediments decreased active peatland extent, thickness, and modeled C stocks by 70 to 90% from warmer times. Tropical peatland extent and C stocks show little temporal variation throughout the study period. While the increased burial of northern peats was correlated with cooling periods, the burial of tropical peat was predominately driven by changes in sea level and regional hydrology. Peat burial by mineral sediments represents a mechanism for long-term terrestrial C storage in the Earth system. These results show that northern peatlands accumulate significant C stocks during warmer times, indicating their potential for C sequestration during the warming Anthropocene.

The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 10¹⁵ g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation model (LPX). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates, and peatland specific plant functional types. Nitrogen limitation down-regulates average modern net primary productivity over peatlands by almost a factor of two. Decadal acrotelm-to-catotelm C fluxes vary between −20 and +50 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ over the Holocene. Key model parameters are calibrated with reconstructed peat accumulation rates from peat-core data. The model reproduces the major features of the peat core data and of the observation-based modern circumpolar soil carbon distribution. Results from a set of simulations for possible evolutions of northern peat development and areal extent show that soil C stocks in modern peatlands increased by 365–550 Pg C since the LGM, of which 175–272 Pg C accumulated between 11 and 5 kyr BP. Furthermore, our simulations suggest a persistent C sequestration rate of 35–50 Pg C per 1000 yr in peatlands under current climate conditions, and that this C sink could either vanish or turn into a small source by 2100 AD depending on climate trajectories as projected for different representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways

Research in environmental science relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature at around 2 meter above ground1-3. These climatic grids however fail to reflect conditions near and below the soil surface, where critical ecosystem functions such as soil carbon storage are controlled and most biodiversity resides4-8. By using soil temperature time series from over 8500 locations across all of the world’s terrestrial biomes4, we derived global maps of soil temperature-related variables at 1 km resolution for the 0–5 and 5–15 cm depth horizons. Based on these maps, we show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding 2 m gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C, with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Soils in cold and/or dry biomes are annually substantially warmer (3.6°C ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are slightly cooler (0.7 ± 2.3°C). As a result, annual soil temperature varies less (by 17%) across the globe than air temperature. The effect of macroclimatic conditions on the difference between soil and air temperature highlights the importance of considering that macroclimate warming may not result in the same level of soil temperature warming. Similarly, changes in precipitation could alter the relationship between soil and air temperature, with implications for soil-atmosphere feedbacks9. Our results underpin that the impacts of climate and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments.

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Abstract. Soils and other unconsolidated deposits in the northern circumpolar permafrost region store large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). This SOC is potentially vulnerable to remobilization following soil warming and permafrost thaw, but stock estimates are poorly constrained and quantitative error estimates were lacking. This study presents revised estimates of the permafrost SOC pool, including quantitative uncertainty estimates, in the 0–3 m depth range in soils as well as for deeper sediments (>3 m) in deltaic deposits of major rivers and in the Yedoma region of Siberia and Alaska. The revised estimates are based on significantly larger databases compared to previous studies. Compared to previous studies, the number of individual sites/pedons has increased by a factor ×8–11 for soils in the 1–3 m depth range,, a factor ×8 for deltaic alluvium and a factor ×5 for Yedoma region deposits. Upscaled based on regional soil maps, estimated permafrost region SOC stocks are 217 ± 15 and 472 ± 34 Pg for the 0–0.3 m and 0–1 m soil depths, respectively (±95% confidence intervals). Depending on the regional subdivision used to upscale 1–3 m soils (following physiography or continents), estimated 0–3 m SOC storage is 1034 ± 183 Pg or 1104 ± 133 Pg. Of this, 34 ± 16 Pg C is stored in thin soils of the High Arctic. Based on generalised calculations, storage of SOC in deep deltaic alluvium (>3 m to ≤60 m depth) of major Arctic rivers is estimated to 91 ± 39 Pg (of which 69 ± 34 Pg is in permafrost). In the Yedoma region, estimated >3 m SOC stocks are 178 +140/−146 Pg, of which 74 +54/−57 Pg is stored in intact, frozen Yedoma (late Pleistocene ice- and organic-rich silty sediments) with the remainder in refrozen thermokarst deposits (±16/84th percentiles of bootstrapped estimates). A total estimated mean storage for the permafrost region of ca. 1300–1370 Pg with an uncertainty range of 930–1690 Pg encompasses the combined revised estimates. Of this, ≤819–836 Pg is perennially frozen. While some components of the revised SOC stocks are similar in magnitude to those previously reported for this region, there are also substantial differences in individual components. There is evidence of remaining regional data-gaps. Estimates remain particularly poorly constrained for soils in the High Arctic region and physiographic regions with thin sedimentary overburden (mountains, highlands and plateaus) as well as for >3 m depth deposits in deltas and the Yedoma region.

Arid Central Asia (ACA) lies on a major climatic boundary between the mid-latitude westerlies and the northwestern limit of the Asian summer monsoon, yet only a few high-quality reconstructions exist for its climate history. Here we calibrate a new organic geochemical proxy for lake temperature, and present a 45-yr-resolution temperature record from Hurleg Lake at the eastern margin of the ACA in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Combination with other proxy data from the same samples reveals a distinct warm–dry climate association throughout the record, which contrasts with the warm–wet association found in the Asian monsoon region. This indicates that the climatic boundary between the westerly and the monsoon regimes has remained roughly in the same place throughout the Holocene, at least near our study site. Six millennial-scale cold events are found within the past 9000 yr, which approximately coincide with previously documented events of northern high-latitude cooling and tropical drought. This suggests a connection between the North Atlantic and tropical monsoon climate systems, via the westerly circulation. Finally, we also observe an increase in regional climate variability after the mid-Holocene, which we relate to changes in vegetation (forest) cover in the monsoon region through a land-surface albedo feedback.