Background and Aims In this study, we aimed to develop a convenient web‐based calculator to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with Stage I esophageal cancer (EC). Methods Data of 1664 patients, between 2004 and 2015, were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was employed to sift variables; subsequently, Cox proportional hazards regression model was built. We applied the enhanced bootstrap validation to appraise the discrimination and calibration of the model. Clinical benefit was measured using decision curve analysis (DCA). Thereafter, a web‐based calculator based on the model, which could be used to predict the 1‐, 3‐, and 5‐year OS rates, was developed. Results Race, age, histologic type, grade, N stage, and therapeutic methods were selected. C‐indices of the prediction model in the training and validation groups were 0.726 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.679–0.773) and 0.724 (95% CI, 0.679–0.769), respectively. Calibration curves showed good agreement between the groups. The DCA demonstrated that the prediction model is clinically useful. Conclusions The prediction model we developed showed a good performance in calculating the OS rates in patients with Stage I EC. The web‐based calculator is available at https://championship.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/.
IntroductionAcute variceal haemorrhage (AVH) in patients with cirrhosis remains a topic of great interest. Although several guidelines recommend endoscopy within 24 hours after AVH, there is no consensus on the most appropriate time to perform this intervention. The purpose of this study is to identify whether urgent endoscopy (within 6 hours after gastroenterological consultation) is superior to non-urgent endoscopy (between 6 hours and 24 hours after gastroenterological consultation) in reducing the rebleeding rate of these patients.Methods and analysisThis is a single-centred, prospective, randomised clinical trial. Between March 2021 and December 2023, an estimated 400 patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive endoscopic intervention either within 6 hours or between 6 and 24 hours after gastroenterological consultation. Randomisation will be conducted by permuted block randomisation, with stratification by age, systolic blood pressure and pulse rate. The primary efficacy endpoint is rebleeding within 42 days after control of AVH. The secondary efficacy endpoints mainly include all-cause mortality within 42 days after randomisation, persistent bleeding, length of hospitalisation, etc.Ethics and disseminationThe study protocol was approved by the Ethical Committees of Jinling Hospital (authorised ethics no. DZQH-KYLL-21-01). This trial will provide valuable insights into the timing of endoscopic intervention for AVH in patients with cirrhosis. Furthermore, the trial results and conclusions could provide high-quality evidence to guide clinical research and treatment.Trial registration numberNCT04786743.
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