Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, coincided with chunyun, the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic. Methods: We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic. Results: We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction. Conclusions: Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.
Aim To understand nurses’ responses to COVID‐19 and identify their uptake of changes in the procedure required for the management of COVID‐19 in an inpatient psychiatric ward. Background The infection risk for COVID‐19 in an enclosed inpatient psychiatric ward is high due to living arrangements in the ward and the nature of the infectious disease. Introduction This paper describes inpatient nurses’ experiences, challenges and strategies deployed at the institutional and national levels to contain the spread of infection. Methods Written feedback was collected to understand nurses’ responses and identify their uptake of changes in procedure following the COVID‐19 outbreak in the ward. Findings Nurses felt shocked, worried, isolated, expressed a lack of confidence, and experienced physical exhaustion. COVID‐19 specific challenges were highlighted in the delivery of safe and quality nursing care. Nurses were satisfied with the hospital policy and strategies implemented during the outbreak, acknowledging the importance of support from nursing leaders. Discussion Practical support and strong nursing leadership have been imperative in the battle against the COVID‐19 outbreak in the psychiatric hospital. Psychiatric nursing care was maintained with a modified management and treatment approach. Implications for Nursing practice Nurses' willingness to adjust to the reconfiguration of operations to accommodate changes has been crucial for the healthcare system to run effectively. Good practices and policies established during this crisis should be developed and established permanently in nursing practice. Implications for Health Policy Prompt and effective contingency planning and policymaking at the national and institutional level, targeting human resource management and infection control, can introduce changes and alternative options for nursing care in a pandemic. Conclusion With support from influential nursing leaders, strategies and policies are imperative in ensuring the successful management of COVID situations in an inpatient psychiatric setting.
Power cables are preferred in urban areas for power transmission and distribution because of their high reliability, environmental friendliness and the visual invisibility. Whilst the volume of underground power cable has been growing steadily, the voltage level of the power cables have also increased significantly in recent years. The increasing volume of high voltage power cables brings about technical challenges to the power system operators and maintenance engineers. One of these challenges is the application of appropriate condition monitoring techniques to detect incipient cable faults and to reduce unplanned outages. This paper aims to analyse the causes, modes and mechanisms, among cable joint failures, and to propose an applicable sheath circulating current monitoring technique with the associated criteria for fault diagnosis. Two joint faults, flooded link box and joint insulation breakdown, are analysed in detail. Finally, a set of criteria is proposed for cable joint fault diagnosis based on the simulation of an 110kV underground power cable system of length 1.5km
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