A number of predictors have been suggested to detect the most influential spreaders of information in online social media across various domains such as Twitter or Facebook. In particular, degree, PageRank, k-core and other centralities have been adopted to rank the spreading capability of users in information dissemination media. So far, validation of the proposed predictors has been done by simulating the spreading dynamics rather than following real information flow in social networks. Consequently, only model-dependent contradictory results have been achieved so far for the best predictor. Here, we address this issue directly. We search for influential spreaders by following the real spreading dynamics in a wide range of networks. We find that the widely-used degree and PageRank fail in ranking users' influence. We find that the best spreaders are consistently located in the k-core across dissimilar social platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, Livejournal and scientific publishing in the American Physical Society. Furthermore, when the complete global network structure is unavailable, we find that the sum of the nearest neighbors' degree is a reliable local proxy for user's influence. Our analysis provides practical instructions for optimal design of strategies for “viral” information dissemination in relevant applications.

Background-The incidence of thyroid cancer is rising steadily because of overdiagnosis and overtreatment conferred by widespread use of sensitive imaging techniques for screening. This overall incidence growth is especially driven by increased diagnosis of indolent and welldifferentiated papillary subtype and early-stage thyroid cancer, whereas the incidence of advancedstage thyroid cancer has increased marginally. Thyroid ultrasound is frequently used to diagnose thyroid cancer. The aim of this study was to use deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) models to improve the diagnostic accuracy of thyroid cancer by analysing sonographic imaging data from clinical ultrasounds.Methods-We did a retrospective, multicohort, diagnostic study using ultrasound images sets from three hospitals in China. We developed and trained the DCNN model on the training set, 131 731 ultrasound images from 17 627 patients with thyroid cancer and 180 668 images from 25 325 controls from the thyroid imaging database at Tianjin Cancer Hospital. Clinical diagnosis of the training set was made by 16 radiologists from Tianjin Cancer Hospital. Images from anatomical sites that were judged as not having cancer were excluded from the training set and only individuals with suspected thyroid cancer underwent pathological examination to confirm diagnosis. The model's diagnostic performance was validated in an internal validation set from Tianjin Cancer Hospital (8606 images from 1118 patients) and two external datasets in China (the

Ensemble learning strategies, especially Boosting and Bagging decision trees, have demonstrated impressive capacities to improve the prediction accuracy of base learning algorithms. Further gains have been demonstrated by strategies that combine simple ensemble formation approaches. In this paper, we investigate the hypothesis that the improvement in accuracy of multi-strategy approaches to ensemble learning is due to an increase in the diversity of ensemble members that are formed. In addition, guided by this hypothesis, we develop three new multi-strategy ensemble learning techniques. Experimental results in a wide variety of natural domains suggest that these multi-strategy ensemble learning techniques are, on average, more accurate than their component ensemble learning techniques.

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013)]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold β(c) with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5, which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at α(c)≈0.5. The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

No abstract

Random walks constitute a fundamental mechanism for many dynamics taking place on complex networks. Besides, as a more realistic description of our society, multiplex networks have been receiving a growing interest, as well as the dynamical processes that occur on top of them. Here, inspired by one specific model of random walks that seems to be ubiquitous across many scientific fields, the Lévy flight, we study a new navigation strategy on top of multiplex networks. Capitalizing on spectral graph and stochastic matrix theories, we derive analytical expressions for the mean first passage time and the average time to reach a node on these networks. Moreover, we also explore the efficiency of Lévy random walks, which we found to be very different as compared to the single layer scenario, accounting for the structure and dynamics inherent to the multiplex network. Finally, by comparing with some other important random walk processes defined on multiplex networks, we find that in some region of the parameters, a Lévy random walk is the most efficient strategy. Our results give us a deeper understanding of Lévy random walks and show the importance of considering the topological structure of multiplex networks when trying to find efficient navigation strategies.

No abstract

Feedback loops between population dynamics of individuals and their ecological environment are ubiquitously found in nature, and have shown profound effects on the resulting eco-evolutionary dynamics. Incorporating linear environmental feedback law into replicator dynamics of two-player games, recent theoretical studies shed light on understanding the oscillating dynamics of social dilemma. However, detailed effects of more general nonlinear feedback loops in multi-player games, which is more common especially in microbial systems, remain unclear. Here, we focus on ecological public goods games with environmental feedbacks driven by nonlinear selection gradient. Unlike previous models, multiple segments of stable and unstable equilibrium manifolds can emerge from the population dynamical systems. We find that a larger relative asymmetrical feedback speed for group interactions centered on cooperators not only accelerates the convergence of stable manifolds, but also increases the attraction basin of these stable manifolds. Furthermore, our work offers an innovative manifold control approach: by designing appropriate switching control laws, we are able to steer the eco-evolutionary dynamics to any desired population states. Our mathematical framework is an important generalization and complement to coevolutionary game dynamics, and also fills the theoretical gap in guiding the widespread problem of population state control in microbial experiments. POPULAR SUMMARYChanges in environment where individuals interact and compete can drastically impact evolutionary course and outcome in a wide variety of population systems, ranging from microbial cooperation to antibiotic resistance evolution. Such environmental changes are often unprecedented in the nature or simply the result of manual interventions using control devices like chemostat. There has been growing interest in incorporating environmental feedbacks into eco-evolutionary dynamics, yet it remains largely unknown if it is possible (and how) to steer ecoevolutionary dynamics with external switching feedback control laws that adjust selection gradient in the population systems. To fill this theoretical gap, we study eco-evolutionary dynamics of group cooperation with environmental feedbacks that modulate multi-person public goods game interactions. We find the existence of stable equilibrium manifold where the population can settle on and derive potential external control inputs that can steer the population to any desired states.In this work, we extend the mathematical framework of eco-evolutionary game dynamics to incorporate realistic asymmetrical environmental feedbacks, for game interactions organized by focal cooperators may have a different efficiency than the ones by defectors. Because of such complex interactions, multiple segments of stable and unstable manifolds can emerge from the population dynamical systems. Our work is in line with previous experimental work demonstrating the existence of (unstable) manifold ('separatrix') in population systems. Ou...