Correlation analysis serves as an easy-to-implement estimation approach for the quantification of the interaction or connectivity between different units. Often, pairwise correlations estimated by sliding windows are time-varying (on different window segments) and window size-dependent (on different window sizes). Still, how to choose an appropriate window size remains unclear. This paper offers a framework for studying this fundamental question by observing a critical transition from a chaotic-like state to a nonchaotic state. Specifically, given two time series and a fixed window size, we create a correlation-based series based on nonlinear correlation measurement and sliding windows as an approximation of the time-varying correlations between the original time series. We find that the varying correlations yield a state transition from a chaotic-like state to a nonchaotic state with increasing window size. This window size-dependent transition is analyzed as a universal phenomenon in both model and real-world systems (e.g., climate, financial, and neural systems). More importantly, the transition point provides a quantitative rule for the selection of window sizes. That is, the nonchaotic correlation better allows for many regression-based predictions.
An effective and stable operation of an economic system leads to a prosperous society and sustainable world development. Unfortunately, the system faces inevitable perturbations of extreme events and is frequently damaged. To maintain the system's stability, recovering its damaged functionality is essential and is complementary to strengthening its resilience and forecasting extreme events. This paper proposes a target recovery method based on network and economic equilibrium theories to defend the economic system against perturbations characterized as localized attacks. This novel method stimulates a set of economic sectors that mutually reinforce damaged economic sectors and is intuitively named the target reinforcement path (TRP) method. Developing a nonlinear dynamic model that simulates the economic system's operation after being perturbed by a localized attack and recovering based on a target recovery method, we compute the relaxation time for this process to quantify the method's efficiency. Furthermore, we adopt a rank aggregation method to comprehensively measure the method's efficiency by studying the target recovery of three country-level economic systems (China, India, and Japan) for 73 different regional attack scenarios. Through a comparative analysis of the TRP method and three other classic methods, the TRP method is shown to be more effective and less costly. Applicatively, the proposed method exhibits the potential to recover other vital complex systems with spontaneous recovery ability, such as immune, neurological, and ecological systems.
We live in a hyperconnected world---connectivity that can sometimes be detrimental. Finding an optimal subset of nodes or links to disintegrate harmful networks is a fundamental problem in network science, with potential applications to anti-terrorism, epidemic control, and many other fields of study. The challenge of the network disintegration problem is to balance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategies. In this paper, we propose a cost-effective targeted enumeration method for network disintegration. The proposed approach includes two stages: searching candidate objects and identifying an optimal solution. In the first stage, we use rank aggregation to generate a comprehensive node importance ranking, upon which we identify a small-scale candidate set of nodes to remove. In the second stage, we use an enumeration method to find an optimal combination among the candidate nodes. Extensive experimental results on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a satisfying trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency. The introduced two-stage targeted enumeration framework can also be applied to other computationally intractable combinational optimization problems, from team assembly, via portfolio investment, to drug design.
We live in a hyperconnected world---connectivity that can sometimes be detrimental. Finding an optimal subset of nodes or links to disintegrate harmful networks is a fundamental problem in network science, with potential applications to anti-terrorism, epidemic control, and many other fields of study. The challenge of the network disintegration problem is to balance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategies. In this paper, we propose a cost-effective targeted enumeration method for network disintegration. The proposed approach includes two stages: searching candidate objects and identifying an optimal solution. In the first stage, we use rank aggregation to generate a comprehensive node importance ranking, upon which we identify a small-scale candidate set of nodes to remove. In the second stage, we use an enumeration method to find an optimal combination among the candidate nodes. Extensive experimental results on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a satisfying trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency. The introduced two-stage targeted enumeration framework can also be applied to other computationally intractable combinational optimization problems, from team assembly, via portfolio investment, to drug design.
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