This paper sheds light on the effect of combination modes on the evaluation of berthing capacity for Sanya Yazhou Fishing Port (SYFP) under hypothetical typhoon conditions. By statistically analysing the maximum probability of moving speeds and directions of historical typhoons passing through the fishing port, the representative typhoon path was determined with the nonparametric regression method. The designed typhoon wind fields of levels 12–17 were generated based on Holland’s parametric wind model. Then, the MIKE 21 BW model was used to obtain the high-precision wave distribution in the fishing port. The boundary conditions (significant wave height and peak period) of the MIKE 21 BW model were calculated by combining the MIKE 21 SW model with the designed typhoon wind fields. In SYFP, ships usually adopt the modes of multi-ship side-by-side and single anchor mooring during typhoons. In fair weather, approximately 158 vessels can be berthed if they are all large ones, while approximately 735 vessels can be moored if they are all small ones. However, with an increase in typhoon levels, the anchoring area for small vessels decreases. From the perspective of wave distribution in the fishing port, the number of large vessels moored was hardly affected by typhoons. This can be attributed to the breakwater, which significantly decreases the large wave height in the fishing port. Finally, a study on the framework of a method for hazard assessment of berthing capacity in the coming typhoon-driven storm waves was set up.
An increasing number of coastal and offshore structures have been built for coastal protection and marine development in recent years, and these marine structures need to be reasonably designed on the basis of wind speed. In this paper, extreme wind speed estimates are studied in detail by using the best-track datasets of northwestern Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones and ERA5 wind field data. The extreme wind speed fits by five distributions are compared using a blended sample of the wind fields from the ERA5 dataset and parametric wind data. The blend of wind fields improved the data accuracy and extreme value estimation reliability. In addition, the effects of the distribution model, data, threshold, and parameter estimation methods on the calculated results are discussed. The results show that the data had the greatest influences on probability prediction, followed by the distribution model and the parameter estimation method, with the threshold presenting the least influence. In this study, the reliability of the estimates was improved and the uncertainty of the results was analyzed, and the findings provide a wind speed design reference for the northern South China Sea.
Extreme waves induced by extreme tropical cyclones (TCs) with a very strong intensity threaten marine production and transportation. In this paper, six tropical cyclones with a typical track and extremely strong intensity were synthesized to study the extreme waves. The data on TC tracks were extracted from the China Meteorological Administration. The historic TCs from 1949 to 2018 were classified into six groups according to their tracks, and a representative track was synthesized for each group of TCs. We applied an extremely strong intensity to the tracks for studying the extreme wave field. The synthesized track of typical track cyclones (TTCs) was based on the maximum probability of the translation distance and direction of the TC center according to historical data. The central pressure (Pc) was used to represent the TC intensity and was studied at the recurrence periods of 100, 1,000, and 10,000 years. The synthetic TC with a representative track and extremely strong intensity was called a typical tropical cyclone (TTC). The extreme wave fields driven by TTCs were simulated by Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN). The wind field driving the waves was calculated using the Holland parametric wind model and was well-verified with observations. This paper calculated the extreme Hs and Tp values of the return periods of 100, 1,000, and 10,000 years for six types of TTCs. It was found that the extreme Hs values were very different for each TTC. The highest Hs could reach 31.3 m in the recurrence period of 10,000 years. Followed by TTC-I with 18 m, TTC-VI was the weakest with less than 10 m. The TC track position frequency and its spatial variation of extreme intensity were discussed. The synthetic tracks were representative, and the intensity could be influenced by spatial variation. In the end, four historical typhoons with great intensity, wide impact, and serious disaster-causing effects were selected to compare with TTC. This paper can provide guidance for maritime planners.
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