We selected Tai Lake in China as the research area, and based on the Eco-lab model, we parameterized seven main external input conditions: discharge, carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, wind speed, elevation, and temperature. We combined the LHS uncertainty analysis method and the Morris sensitivity analysis method to study the relationship between water quality and input conditions. The results showed that (1) the external input conditions had an uncertain impact on water quality. Among them, the uncertainties in total nitrogen concentration (TN) and total phosphorus concentration (TP) were mainly reflected in the lake entrance area, and the uncertainties of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and dissolved oxygen (DO) were mainly reflected in the lake center area. (2) The external input conditions had different sensitivities to different water layers. The bottom layer was most clearly and stably affected by input conditions. The TN and TP of the three different water layers were closely related to the flux into the lake, with average sensitivities of 83% and 78%, respectively. DO was mainly related to temperature and water elevation, with the bottom layer affected by temperatures as high as 98%. Chl-a was affected by all input factors except nitrogen and was most affected by wind speed, with an average of about 34%. Therefore, the accuracy of external input conditions can be effectively improved according to specific goals, reducing the uncertainty impact of the external input conditions of the model, and the model can provide a scientific reference for the determination of the mid- to long-term governance plan for Tai Lake in the future.
Taking Tai Lake in China as the research area, a 3D water environment mathematical model was built. Combined with the LHS and Morris uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods, the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), dissolved oxygen (DO), and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) were carried out. The main conclusions are: (1) The performance assessment of the 3D water environment mathematical model is good (R2 and NSE > 0.8) and is suitable for water quality research in large shallow lakes. (2) The time uncertainty study proves that the variation range of Chl-a is much larger than that of the other three water quality parameters and is more severe in summer and autumn. (3) The spatial uncertainty study proves that Chl-a is mainly present in the northwest lake area (heavily polluted area) and the other three water quality indicators are mainly present in the center. (4) The sensitivity results show that the main controlling factors of DO are ters (0.15) and kmsc (0.12); those of TN and TP are tetn (0.58) and tetp (0.24); and those of Chl-a are its own growth rate (0.14), optimal growth temperature (0.12), death rate (0.12), optimal growth light (0.11), and TP uptake rate (0.11). Thus, TP control is still the key treatment method for algal blooms that can be implemented by the Chinese government.
Appropriate water body diversion can improve the water quality of Tai Lake. Excessive diversion of water would, however, dramatically alter the local flow fields, which are not conducive to the growth of aquatic plants and the stability of ecosystems. The current “Diverting Water from the Yangtze River to Tai Lake (DWYRTL)” project uses a single water source, the Wangyu River, for diversion, a model that may significantly affect the nearby flow rate or uniformity of the lake and is not conducive to the long-term stability of the aquatic ecosystem in the Tai Lake district of the eastern part of the lake. In order to simulate the different situations of single- and dual-source water diversions (Wangyu-Xinmeng Rivers) in Tai Lake, we based this study on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with the Euler method, which can accurately calculate the water exchange rates in the different districts of Tai Lake. The results show that (1) it is recommended that the total annual diversion of water should not exceed 20 × 108 m3; (2) the wind field is the most important factor determining the distribution of spatial water exchange; (3) under wind-free conditions, the flow rate of a single-source diversion of water is approximately 50% higher than that of dual-source diversion; and (4) water diversion under the prevailing conditions of the northwest wind in winter will reduce the semiexchange period of the eastern part of the lake area from 50 to 30 days, significantly changing the nearby district’s uniformity, leading to ecological risks. Therefore, it is recommended that the dual-source water diversion mode be used in winter and windless season, and single-source water diversion mode be used in other seasons.
In order to evaluate the overall impact of water diversion on Taihu Lake, this paper carries out numerical simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of the flow field and the TP concentration field in Taihu Lake based on measured data during the water diversion period by using the Euler–Lagrange method. The results show that: (1) the Pearson coefficient of monitoring points in the East Lake area increases significantly during the water diversion period, indicating that the diversion of water may indirectly influence water quality; (2) the diversion of water has a significant influence on the flow rate of the simulated stations in Taihu Lake, and the influence is Taipu (103%) > Gongwan (60%) >East Lake (31%); (3) when the amount of water flow transfer from the Wangyu River to the lake is greater than 100 m3/s, the mean concentration of TP in the Center and East lakes increases significantly (more than 50%). The recommended water diversion discharge is to be controlled in the range 100–200 m3/s and the total water diversion yield between 1.56 and 2.59 billion m3/a.
This research optimized a hydrodynamic model based on the in-situ measurement experiments, which can evaluate the transport process of pollution groups from the inflowing lake sources with different wind conditions and their effects on the sensitive area in Tai Lake. The results showed that the wind drag coefficient (Cs) was 0.001–0.0028 when the wind speed was 1–12 m/s, and the particle trajectory is validated well by the methods of Thiessen polygon and Lagrange particle tracking, which proves that this hydrodynamic model was been optimized successfully. During the water diversion period, the results showed that Northwest Area and Gong Bay are the most important pollution flux sources to the sensitive area. Under northwest wind condition, the pollution flux proportion from Northwest Area and Gong Bay is 65 and 17%, respectively. under southeast wind condition, the pollution flux proportion from Northwest Area and Gong Bay is 48 and 27%, respectively. Namely, pollution control to the upstream watershed of the Northwest Area and improve the water quality (TP < 0.065 mg/L; TN < 1.2 mg/L) from the Wangyu river are the effective methods to reduce the pollution risks for the sensitive area.
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