Background ageing is an important risk factor for a variety of human pathologies. Biological age (BA) may better capture ageing-related physiological changes compared with chronological age (CA). Objective we developed a deep learning (DL) algorithm to predict BA based on retinal photographs and evaluated the performance of our new ageing marker in the risk stratification of mortality and major morbidity in general populations. Methods we first trained a DL algorithm using 129,236 retinal photographs from 40,480 participants in the Korean Health Screening study to predict the probability of age being ≥65 years (‘RetiAGE’) and then evaluated the ability of RetiAGE to stratify the risk of mortality and major morbidity among 56,301 participants in the UK Biobank. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs). Results in the UK Biobank, over a 10-year follow up, 2,236 (4.0%) died; of them, 636 (28.4%) were due to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and 1,276 (57.1%) due to cancers. Compared with the participants in the RetiAGE first quartile, those in the RetiAGE fourth quartile had a 67% higher risk of 10-year all-cause mortality (HR = 1.67 [1.42–1.95]), a 142% higher risk of CVD mortality (HR = 2.42 [1.69–3.48]) and a 60% higher risk of cancer mortality (HR = 1.60 [1.31–1.96]), independent of CA and established ageing phenotypic biomarkers. Likewise, compared with the first quartile group, the risk of CVD and cancer events in the fourth quartile group increased by 39% (HR = 1.39 [1.14–1.69]) and 18% (HR = 1.18 [1.10–1.26]), respectively. The best discrimination ability for RetiAGE alone was found for CVD mortality (c-index = 0.70, sensitivity = 0.76, specificity = 0.55). Furthermore, adding RetiAGE increased the discrimination ability of the model beyond CA and phenotypic biomarkers (increment in c-index between 1 and 2%). Conclusions the DL-derived RetiAGE provides a novel, alternative approach to measure ageing.
IMPORTANCE With the rapidly aging population, the burden of visual impairment (VI) and cognitive decline is expected to increase. Previous cross-sectional studies suggest an association between these 2 health outcomes. However, few longitudinal reports have examined this association, and to our knowledge, no studies have been performed in Asian populations. Further investigation on this association may help to better identify individuals at risk of cognitive decline. OBJECTIVE To examine the longitudinal association between VI and decline in cognitive function in a multiethnic Asian population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSIn this longitudinal, population-based, prospective cohort study, Chinese, Indian, and Malay adults 60 years or older at baseline were recruited from the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases (SEED) study. At baseline, participants from the SEED study were recruited under 3 studies: the Singapore Malay Eye Study (SiMES;, the Singapore
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