To effectively perform the probabilistic fatigue/creep coupling optimization of a turbine bladed disk, this paper develops the fuzzy multi-extremum response surface method (FMERSM) for the comprehensive probabilistic optimization of multi-failure/multi-component structures, which absorbs the ideas of the extremum response surface method, hierarchical strategy, and fuzzy theory. We studied the approaches of FMERSM modeling and fatigue/creep damage evaluation of turbine bladed disks, and gave the procedure for the fuzzy probabilistic fatigue/creep optimization of a multi-component structure with FMERSM. The probabilistic fatigue/creep coupling optimization of turbine bladed disks was implemented by regarding the rotor speed, temperature, and density as optimization parameters; the creep stress, creep strain, fatigue damage, and creep damage as optimization objectives; and the reliability and GH4133B fatigue/creep damages as constraint functions. The results show that gas temperature T and rotor speed ω are the key parameters that should be controlled in bladed disk optimization, and respectively reduce by 85 K and 113 rad/s after optimization, which is promising to extend bladed disk life and decrease failure damages. The simulation results show that this method has a higher modeling accuracy and computational efficiency than the Monte Carlo method (MCM). The efforts of this study provide a new useful method for overall probabilistic multi-failure optimization and enrich mechanical reliability theory.

The effectiveness of a model is the key factor of influencing the reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) of multi-failure turbine blades in the power system. A machine learning-based RBDO approach, called fuzzy multi-SVR learning method, was proposed by absorbing the strengths of fuzzy theory, support vector machine of regression (SVR), and multi-response surface method. The model of fuzzy multi-SVR learning method was established by adopting artificial bee colony algorithm to optimize the parameters of SVR models and considering the fuzziness of constraints based on fuzzy theory, in respect of the basic thought of multi-response surface method. The RBDO model and procedure with fuzzy multi-SVR learning method were then resolved and designed by multi-objective genetic algorithm. Lastly, the fuzzy RBDO of a turbine blade with multi-failure modes was performed regarding the design parameters of rotor speed, temperature, and aerodynamic pressure, and the design objectives of blade stress, strain, and deformation, and the fuzzy constraints of reliability degree and boundary conditions, as well. It is revealed (1) the stress and deformation of turbine blade are reduced by 92.38 MPa and 0.09838 mm, respectively. (2) The comprehensive reliability degree of the blade was improved by 3.45% from 95.4% to 98.85%. (3) It is verified that the fuzzy multi-SVR learning method is workable for the fuzzy RBDO of complex structures just like a multi-failure blade with high modeling precision, as well as high optimization, efficiency, and accuracy. The efforts of this study open a new research way, i.e., machine learning-based RBDO, for the RBDO of multi-failure structures, which expands the application of machine learning methods, and enriches the mechanical reliability design method and theory as well.

To reveal the effect of high-temperature creep on the blade-tip radial running clearance of aeroengine high-pressure turbines, a distributed collaborative generalized regression extremum neural network is proposed by absorbing the heuristic thoughts of distributed collaborative response surface method and the generalized extremum neural network, in order to improve the reliability analysis of blade-tip clearance with creep behavior in terms of modeling precision and simulation efficiency. In this method, the generalized extremum neural network was used to handle the transients by simplifying the response process as one extremum and to address the strong nonlinearity by means of its nonlinear mapping ability. The distributed collaborative response surface method was applied to handle multi-object multi-discipline analysis, by decomposing one “big” model with hyperparameters and high nonlinearity into a series of “small” sub-models with few parameters and low nonlinearity. Based on the developed method, the blade-tip clearance reliability analysis of an aeroengine high-pressure turbine was performed subject to the creep behaviors of structural materials, by considering the randomness of influencing parameters such as gas temperature, rotational speed, material parameters, convective heat transfer coefficient, and so forth. It was found that the reliability degree of the clearance is 0.9909 when the allowable value is 2.2 mm, and the creep deformation of the clearance presents a normal distribution with a mean of 1.9829 mm and a standard deviation of 0.07539 mm. Based on a comparison of the methods, it is demonstrated that the proposed method requires a computing time of 1.201 s and has a computational accuracy of 99.929% over 104 simulations, which are improvements of 70.5% and 1.23%, respectively, relative to the distributed collaborative response surface method. Meanwhile, the high efficiency and high precision of the presented approach become more obvious with the increasing simulations. The efforts of this study provide a promising approach to improve the dynamic reliability analysis of complex structures.

To enhance the accuracy and efficiency of reliability analysis for an aero-engine vectoring exhaust nozzle (VEN), a multi-extremum adaptive fuzzy network (MEAFN) method is developed by absorbing an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) into the multi-extremum surrogate model (MESM) method. In the proposed method, the MERSM is used to establish the surrogate models of many output responses for the multi-objective integrated reliability analysis of the VEN. The ANFIS method is regarded as the basis function of the MESM method and adopted to improve the modeling precision of the MESM by introducing the membership degree into the input parameters and weights to improve the approximation capability of the neural network model to the high nonlinear reliability analysis of the VEN. The mathematical model of the MEAFN method and reliability analysis thoughts of the VEN is provided in this study. Then, the proposed MEAFN method is applied to conduct the dynamic reliability analysis of the expansion sheet and the triangular connecting rod in the VEN by considering the aerodynamic loads, operation temperature, and material parameters as the random input variables and the stresses and deformations as the output responses, compared with the Monte Carlo method and the extremum response surface method. From the comparison of the methods, it is indicated that the MEAFN method is promising to improve computational efficiency while maintaining accuracy. The efforts of this study provide guidance for the optimization design of the VEN and enrich the reliability theory of the flexible mechanism.