Background Prior studies assessing the correlation of Gleason score (GS) at needle biopsy and corresponding radical prostatectomy (RP) predated the use of the modified Gleason scoring system and did not factor in tertiary grade patterns. Objective To assess the relation of biopsy and RP grade in the largest study to date. Design, setting, and participants A total of 7643 totally embedded RP and corresponding needle biopsies (2004–2010) were analyzed according to the updated Gleason system. Interventions All patients underwent prostate biopsy prior to RP. Measurements The relation of upgrading or downgrading to patient and cancer characteristics was compared using the chi-square test, Student t test, and multivariable logistic regression. Results and limitations A total of 36.3% of cases were upgraded from a needle biopsy GS 5–6 to a higher grade at RP (11.2% with GS 6 plus tertiary). Half of the cases had matching GS 3 + 4 = 7 at biopsy and RP with an approximately equal number of cases downgraded and upgraded at RP. With biopsy GS 4 + 3 = 7, RP GS was almost equally 3 + 4 = 7 and 4 + 3 = 7. Biopsy GS 8 led to an almost equal distribution between RP GS 4 + 3 = 7, 8, and 9–10. A total of 58% of the cases had matching GS 9–10 at biopsy and RP. In multivariable analysis, increasing age (p < 0.0001), increasing serum prostate-specific antigen level (p < 0.0001), decreasing RP weight (p < 0.0001), and increasing maximum percentage cancer/core (p < 0.0001) predicted the upgrade from biopsy GS 5–6 to higher at RP. Despite factoring in multiple variables including the number of positive cores and the maximum percentage of cancer per core, the concordance indexes were not sufficiently high to justify the use of nomograms for predicting upgrading and downgrading for the individual patient. Conclusions Almost 20% of RP cases have tertiary patterns. A needle biopsy can sample a tertiary higher Gleason pattern in the RP, which is then not recorded in the standard GS reporting, resulting in an apparent overgrading on the needle biopsy.

For carefully selected men, active surveillance with curative intent appears to be a safe alternative to immediate intervention. Limiting surveillance to very-low-risk patients may reduce the frequency of adverse outcomes.

Purpose Long-term prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) after radical prostatectomy is poorly defined in the era of widespread screening. An understanding of the treated natural history of screen-detected cancers and the pathological risk factors for PCSM are needed for treatment decision-making. Methods Using Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis, the clinical and pathological data and follow-up information of 11,521 patients treated by radical prostatectomy at four academic centers from 1987 to 2005 were modeled to predict PCSM. The model was validated on 12,389 patients treated at a separate institution during the same period. Results The overall 15-year PCSM was 7%. Primary and secondary pathological Gleason grade 4–5 (P < 0.001 for both), seminal vesicle invasion (P < 0.001), and year of surgery (P = 0.002) were significant predictors of PCSM. A nomogram predicting 15-year PCSM based on standard pathological parameters was accurate and discriminating with an externally-validated concordance index of 0.92. Stratified by patient age, 15-year PCSM for Gleason score ≤ 6, 3+4, 4+3, and 8–10 ranged from 0.2–1.2%, 4.2–6.5%, 6.6–11%, and 26–37%, respectively. The 15-year PCSM risks ranged from 0.8–1.5%, 2.9–10%, 15–27%, and 22–30% for organ-confined cancer, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion, and lymph node metastasis, respectively. Only 3 of 9557 patients with organ-confined, Gleason score ≤ 6 cancers have died from prostate cancer. Conclusions The presence of poorly differentiated cancer and seminal vesicle invasion are the prime determinants of PCSM after radical prostatectomy. The risk of PCSM can be predicted with unprecedented accuracy once the pathological features of prostate cancer are known.

OBJECTIVE To describe metastasis-free survival (MFS) in men with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence following radical prostatectomy, and to define clinical prognostic factors modifying metastatic risk. PATIENTS AND METHODS We conducted a retrospective analysis of 450 men treated with prostatectomy at a tertiary hospital between July 1981 and July 2010 who developed PSA recurrence (≥0.2 ng/mL) and never received adjuvant or salvage therapy before the development of metastatic disease. We estimated MFS using the Kaplan–Meier method, and investigated factors influencing the risk of metastasis using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS Median follow-up after prostatectomy was 8.0 years, and after biochemical recurrence was 4.0 years. At last follow-up, 134 of 450 patients (29.8%) had developed metastases, while median MFS was 10.0 years. Using multivariable regressions, two variables emerged as independently predictive of MFS: PSA doubling time (<3.0 vs 3.0–8.9 vs 9.0–14.9 vs ≥15.0 months) and Gleason score (≤6 vs 7 vs 8–10). Using these stratifications of Gleason score and PSA doubling time, tables were constructed to predict median, 5- and 10-year MFS after PSA recurrence. In different patient subsets, median MFS ranged from 1 to 15 years. CONCLUSIONS In men undergoing prostatectomy, MFS after PSA recurrence is variable and is most strongly influenced by PSA doubling time and Gleason score. These parameters serve to stratify men into different risk groups with respect to metastatic progression. Our findings may provide the background for appropriate selection of patients, treatments and endpoints for clinical trials.