This article is devoted to the development of a high-level simulation model of tourism industry dynamics. The purpose of this study is to form recommendations for the recovery of the tourism industry from the effects of the pandemic. The resulting model considers domestic tourism from the point of view of the interdependence of the economic condition of the state, the contribution of the tourism industry to gross domestic product, the size of the tourist flow and the average income per tourist. In addition to describing the functional dependencies of the model elements, several experiments are proposed to test the logic of the elements’ relationships. System dynamics tools are used to develop the model. The study also examines the class of computable general equilibrium models as a tool for analyzing supply and demand in the market of tourist products.
Predicting the spread of infectious diseases is an urgent task, since it allows for an assessment of the current situation and making informed decisions on the disease stemming measures to be taken. However, predictive models need constant adjustment and validation of the data obtained according to current data on infection spread dynamics. The present research aims to select and integrate a calibration method for the epidemiological Kermak-McKendrick SEIR model with additional factors. This paper provides an overview and analysis of calibration algorithms for the required parameters of the epidemiological model, as well as numerical experiments comparing the accuracy of the results. The resulting calibration method is the least squares method, since it allows considering boundary values and searching for a local minimum, spending the least amount of time compared to other algorithms.Automatic calibration of the model parameters allows for up-to-date predictions on the spread of infectious diseases with minimal time resources in response to changes in disease data and various quarantine measures. The developed solution can be tailored to other infection spread models.
Sustainable consumption and production strive for the rational management of natural resources, which implies a transition to the production of fewer goods with the greatest consumer value. Consequently, the consumer value assessment is a key task in the product and service design. However, a large number of applied practices for assessing consumer value is a challenge for researchers. Multiple heterogeneous solutions without a common classification and structure do not allow comparing methods with each other. Thus, there is a demand for some universal algorithm for assessing consumer value, which would be a model for the development of individual industry practices. Therefore, the present research aims to develop a universal algorithm for assessing consumer value, which is a unified sample. The work analyzes the current expertise in assessing consumer value. The paper provides a comparison of mathematical tools for aggregate indicators in order to develop a general formula for assessing consumer value. As a result, an algorithm for assessing consumer value has been developed, which includes the following stages: market segmentation by consumer groups, taking into account their personal characteristics and needs; product hierarchical division into groups according to indicators valuable to the consumer; selection of a scale for evaluating indicators; hierarchical convolution, calculation of the consumer value of selected indicators and their aggregation into a final assessment in accordance with coefficients obtained as a result of the initial data analysis. As part of the algorithm verification, an example of the implementation of the algorithm steps based on expert assessment of the tourist product characteristics is proposed. At the next stage of the study, a register of mathematical tools will be specified to ensure the implementation of the algorithm steps, and practical testing on real data on several products from different industries.
This work is devoted to the development of recommendations for managing a project team at the conflict stage of its formation using game theory tools. In the course of the study, the main approaches to modeling the activities of the project team were described, as well as the features of the process of its formation were considered in detail. To model business activity at the conflict stage of team formation, a game-theoretic model of a hierarchical type was selected and adapted. The constructed model of team stimulation, as a kind of hierarchical game, allows us to consider the interaction of the management center both with the team as a whole and with individual participants. The adapted model is used in the task of finding a common team solution. Unlike the basic model, the adapted model does not use the type of each of the team members, which significantly reduces the amount of information needed for calculations, and also simplifies the calculations themselves. At the same time, information about the complexity of the task, the relationship between team members, as well as the priority of the task assigned to the participants was added to the basic model. In comparison with the empirical decision-making on incentives, the developed model allows the management center not only to achieve the tasks assigned to the project team with guarantee and on time, but also to use the company's monetary resources rationally.
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