Modern distributed cyber-physical systems (CPSs) encounter a large variety of physical faults and cyber anomalies and in many cases, they are vulnerable to catastrophic fault propagation scenarios due to strong connectivity among the sub-systems. This paper presents a new data-driven framework for system-wide anomaly detection for addressing such issues. The framework is based on a spatiotemporal feature extraction scheme built on the concept of symbolic dynamics for discovering and representing causal interactions among the subsystems of a CPS. The extracted spatiotemporal features are then used to learn system-wide patterns via a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM). The results show that: (1) the RBM free energy in the off-nominal conditions is different from that in the nominal conditions and can be used for anomaly detection; (2) the framework can capture multiple nominal modes with one graphical model; (3) the case studies with simulated data and an integrated building system validate the proposed approach.
Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) of electrical demand for the purpose of identifying load components has thus far mostly been studied using univariate data, e.g., using only whole building electricity consumption time series to identify a certain type of end-use such as lighting load. However, using additional variables in the form of multivariate time series data may provide more information in terms of extracting distinguishable features in the context of energy disaggregation. In this work, a novel probabilistic graphical modeling approach, namely the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) is proposed for energy disaggregation using multivariate time-series data. The STPN framework is shown to be capable of handling diverse types of multivariate time-series to improve the energy disaggregation performance. The technique outperforms the state of the art factorial hidden Markov models (FHMM) and combinatorial optimization (CO) techniques in multiple real-life test cases. Furthermore, based on two homes' aggregate electric consumption data, a similarity metric is defined for the energy disaggregation of one home using a trained model based on the other home (i.e., out-of-sample case). The proposed similarity metric allows us to enhance scalability via learning supervised models for a few homes and deploying such models to many other similar but unmodeled homes with significantly high disaggregation accuracy.
Multivariate time series modeling and prediction problems are abundant in many machine learning application domains. Accurate interpretation of the prediction outcomes from the model can significantly benefit the domain experts. In addition to isolating the important time-steps, spatial interpretation is also critical to understand the contributions of different variables on the model output. We propose a novel deep learning architecture, called spatiotemporal attention mechanism (STAM) for simultaneous learning of the most important time steps and variables. STAM is a causal (i.e., only depends on past inputs and does not use future inputs) and scalable (i.e., scales well with an increase in the number of variables) approach that is comparable to the state-of-the-art models in terms of computational tractability. We demonstrate our models' performance on a popular public dataset and a domainspecific dataset, where the learned attention weights are validated from a domain knowledge perspective. When compared with the baseline models, the results show that STAM maintains state-of-the-art prediction accuracy while offering the benefit of accurate spatiotemporal interpretability.
This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamic filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependencies among different sub-systems. For quantifying the causal dependency, a mutual information based metric is presented. An energy prediction approach is subsequently proposed based on the STPN framework. For validating the proposed scheme, two case studies are presented, one involving wind turbine power prediction (supply side energy) using the Western Wind Integration data set generated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics, and the other, residential electric energy disaggregation (demand side energy) using the Building America 2010 data set from NREL for exploring the temporal features. In the energy disaggregation context, convex programming techniques beyond the STPN framework are developed and applied to achieve improved disaggregation performance.
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