ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to assess the frequency of clinical features and pathological lead points in recurrent intussusception, with a special focus on the risk factors that lead to recurrent intussusception.DesignThis is a retrospective cohort study. A 5-year retrospective study was performed between January 2012 and July 2016 in the Children’s Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China, to determine the clinical features and pathological lead points of recurrent intussusception.SettingThis is a retrospective chart review of recurrent intussusception cases in a large university teaching hospital.ParticipantsThe medical records were obtained for 1007 cases with intussusception, including demographics, clinical signs and symptoms, imaging and recurrence times if available.InterventionsUnivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to measure significant factors affecting recurrent intussusception and recurrent intussusception with pathological lead points.ResultsThere were 481 total episodes of recurrence in 191 patients. Among these, 87 had one recurrence and 104 had multiple recurrences. After comparing recurrent and non-recurrent intussusception cases using univariate analysis, it was determined that the factors associated with recurrent intussusception were age (>1 year), duration of symptoms (≤12 hours), the lack of bloody stool, paroxysmal crying or vomiting, the mass location (right abdomen) and pathological lead point (P<0.05). Age (>1 year), duration of symptoms (≤12 hours), the absence of vomiting, mass location (right abdomen) and pathological lead point were significantly independently predictive of recurrent intussusception. The factors associated with recurrent intussusception with lead points present were vomiting and mass location in the right abdomen (P<0.05). Vomiting and mass location (left abdomen) were significantly predictive of recurrent intussusception with lead points.ConclusionsAge (>1 year), symptom duration (≤12 hours), the absence of vomiting, mass location (right abdomen) and pathological lead points were significantly predictive of recurrent intussusception. Vomiting and mass location (left abdomen) were significantly predictive of recurrent intussusception with lead points.

ObjectiveThe aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of intussusception cases younger than 48 months and to develop a forecasting model for the occurrence of intussusception in children younger than 48 months in Suzhou.DesignA retrospective study of intussusception cases that occurred between January 2007 and December 2017.SettingRetrospective chart reviews of intussusception paediatric patients in a large Children’s hospital in South-East China were performed.ParticipantsThe hospital records of 13 887 intussusception cases in patients younger than 48 months were included in this study.InterventionsThe modelling process was conducted using the appropriate module in SPSS V.23.0.MethodsThe Box-Jenkins approach was used to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to the monthly recorded intussusception cases in patients younger than 48 months in Suzhou from 2007 to 2016.ResultsEpidemiological analysis revealed that intussusception younger than 48 months was reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the late spring and early summer months. The most affected age group was younger than 36 months. The time-series analysis showed that an ARIMA (1,0,1 1,1,1)12 model offered the best fit for surveillance data of intussusception younger than 48 months. This model was used to predict intussusception younger than 48 months for the year 2017, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data.ConclusionARIMA models are useful for monitoring intussusception in patients younger than 48 months and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future cases in Suzhou. The models are helpful for predicting intussusception cases in Suzhou and could be useful for developing early warning systems. They may also play a key role in early detection, timely treatment and prevention of serious complications in cases of intussusception.