26 April 2006 marks the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident. On this occasion, the World Health Organization (WHO), within the UN Chernobyl Forum initiative, convened an Expert Group to evaluate the health impacts of Chernobyl. This paper summarises the findings relating to cancer. A dramatic increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer has been observed among those exposed to radioactive iodines in childhood and adolescence in the most contaminated territories. Iodine deficiency may have increased the risk of developing thyroid cancer following exposure to radioactive iodines, while prolonged stable iodine supplementation in the years after exposure may reduce this risk. Although increases in rates of other cancers have been reported, much of these increases appear to be due to other factors, including improvements in registration, reporting and diagnosis. Studies are few, however, and have methodological limitations. Further, because most radiation-related solid cancers continue to occur decades after exposure and because only 20 years have passed since the accident, it is too early to evaluate the full radiological impact of the accident. Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in cancer risk. This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of individuals exposed.
Most information on radiation-related cancer risk comes from the Life Span Study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Stomach cancer mortality rates are much higher in Japan than in the U.S., making the applicability of LSS findings to the U.S. population uncertain. A unique cohort of U.S. patients who were irradiated for peptic ulcer to control gastric secretion provides a different perspective on risk. Cancer mortality data were analyzed and relative risks estimated for 3719 subjects treated by radiotherapy (mean stomach dose 14.8 Gy) and/or by surgery and medication during the period 1936-1965 and followed through 1997 (average 25 years). Compared to the U.S. rates, stomach cancer mortality was significantly increased for irradiated and nonirradiated patients (observed/expected = 3.20 and 1.52, respectively). We observed strong evidence of exposure-related excess mortality from cancer of the stomach (RR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3, 5.1), pancreas (RR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5, 5.1), and lung (RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1, 2.1), with commensurate radiation dose responses in analyses that included nonexposed patients. However, the dose responses for these cancers were not significant when restricted to exposed patients. Our excess relative risk per gray estimate of 0.20 at doses
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