Hydroclimatic extremes such as droughts and floods triggered by human-induced climate change are causing severe damage in the Nile River Basin (NRB). These hydroclimatic extremes are not well studied in a holistic approach in NRB. In this study, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and its Follow on mission (GRACE-FO) derived indices and other standardized hydroclimatic indices are computed for developing monitoring and evaluation methods of flood and drought. We evaluated extreme hydroclimatic conditions by using GRACE/GRACE-FO derived indices such as water storage deficits Index (WSDI); and standardized hydroclimatic indices (i.e., Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and others). This study showed that during 1950–2019, eight major floods and ten droughts events were identified based on standardized-indices and GRACE/GRACE-FO-derived indices. Standardized-indices mostly underestimated the drought and flood severity level compared to GRACE/GRACE-FO derived indices. Among standardized indices PDSI show highest correlation (r2 = 0.72) with WSDI. GRACE-/GRACE-FO-derived indices can capture all major flood and drought events; hence, it may be an ideal substitute for data-scarce hydro-meteorological sites. Therefore, the proposed framework can serve as a useful tool for flood and drought monitoring and a better understanding of extreme hydroclimatic conditions in NRB and other similar climatic regions.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on the water balance of Lake Tana in Ethiopia. Impact assessments are by downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) output and hydrological modeling. For A2 and B2 emission scenarios, precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature estimates from the HadCM3 GCM were used. GCM output was downscaled using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM 4.2). Impact analyses were applied for three future time periods: early, mid and late 21st century. Over-lake evaporation is estimated by Hardgrave's method, and over-lake precipitation is estimated by inverse distance weighing interpolation, whereas inflows from gauged and ungauged catchments are simulated by the HBV hydrological model. Findings indicate increases in maximum and minimum temperature on annual base for both emission scenarios. The projection of mean annual over lake precipitation for both A2 and B2 emission scenarios shows increasing pattern for 21 st century in comparison to the baseline period. The increase of mean annual precipitation for A2 emission scenario is 9% (112 mm/year), 10% (125 mm/year) and 11% (137 mm/year) for the three future periods respectively. B2 emission scenario mean annual precipitation shows increase by 9% (111 mm/year), 10% (122 mm/year) and 10% (130 mm/year) respectively for the three future periods. Findings indicate consistent increases of lake storage for all three future periods for both A2 and B2 emission scenarios.

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