The gross moist stability relates the net lateral outflow of moist entropy or moist static energy from an atmospheric convective region to some measure of the strength of the convection in that region. If the gross moist stability can be predicted as a function of the local environmental conditions, then it becomes the key element in understanding how convection is controlled by the large-scale flow. This paper provides a guide to the various ways in which the gross moist stability is defined and the subtleties of its calculation from observations and models. Various theories for the determination of the gross moist stability are presented and its roles in current conceptual models for the tropical atmospheric circulation are analyzed. The possible effect of negative gross moist stability on the development and dynamics of tropical disturbances is currently of great interest.

Moisture mode instability is thought to occur in the tropical oceanic atmosphere when precipitation is a strongly increasing function of saturation fraction (precipitable water divided by saturated precipitable water) and when convection acts to increase the saturation fraction. A highly simplified model of the interaction between convection and large-scale flows in the tropics suggests that there are two types of convectively coupled disturbances: the moisture mode instability described above and another unstable mode dependent on fluctuations in the convective inhibition. The latter is associated with rapidly moving disturbances such as the equatorially coupled Kelvin wave.A toy aquaplanet beta-plane model with realistic sea surface temperatures produces a robust Madden-Julian oscillation-like disturbance that resembles the observed phenomenon in many ways. Convection in this model exhibits a strong dependence of precipitation on saturation fraction and does indeed act to increase this parameter in situations of weak environmental ventilation of disturbances, thus satisfying the criteria for moisture mode instability. In contrast, NCEP's closely related Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) models do not produce a realistic MJO. Investigation of moist entropy transport in NCEP's final analysis (FNL), the data assimilation system feeding the GFS, indicates that convection tends to decrease the saturation fraction in these models, precluding moisture mode instability in most circumstances. Thus, evidence from a variety of sources suggests that the MJO is driven at least in part by moisture mode instability.

A minimal model of a moist equatorial atmosphere is presented in which the precipitation rate is assumed to depend on just the vertically averaged saturation deficit and the convective available potential energy. When wind induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) and cloud-radiation interactions are turned off, there are no growing modes. Gravity waves with wavenumbers smaller than a certain limit respond to a reduced static stability due to latent heat release, and therefore propagate more slowly than dry modes, while those with larger wavenumbers respond to the normal dry static stability. In addition, there exists a stationary mode which decays slowly with time. For realistic parameter values, the effect of reduced static stability on gravity waves is limited to wavelengths greater than the circumference of the earth. WISHE and cloud-radiation interactions both destabilize the stationary mode, but not the gravity waves. 2

The intraseasonal oscillations and in particular the MJO have been and still remain a “holy grail” of today's atmospheric science research. Why does the MJO propagate eastward? What makes it unstable? What is the scaling for the MJO, i.e., why does it prefer long wavelengths or planetary wave numbers 1–3? What is the westward moving component of the intraseasonal oscillation? Though linear WISHE has long been discounted as a plausible model for intraseasonal oscillations and the MJO, the version we have developed explains many of the observed features of those phenomena, in particular, the preference for large zonal scale. In this model version, the moisture budget and the increase of precipitation with tropospheric humidity lead to a “moisture mode.” The destabilization of the large‐scale moisture mode occurs via WISHE only and there is no need to postulate large‐scale radiatively induced instability or negative effective gross moist stability. Our WISHE‐moisture theory leads to a large‐scale unstable eastward propagating mode in n = −1 case and a large‐scale unstable westward propagating mode in n = 1 case. We suggest that the n = −1 case might be connected to the MJO and the observed westward moving disturbance to the observed equatorial Rossby mode.

One of the goals of the East Pacific Investigation of Climate, year 2001 process study (EPIC2001), was to understand the mechanisms controlling the forcing of deep atmospheric convection over the tropical eastern Pacific. An intensive study was made of convection in a 4Њ ϫ 4Њ square centered on 10ЊN, 95ЊW in September and October of 2001. This is called the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) study region because it encompasses the eastern Pacific intertropical convergence zone. Starting from an analysis of the theoretical possibilities and a plethora of dropsonde, in situ, radar, and satellite data, it is found that newly developing convection occurs where a deep layer of air (of order 1 km deep or deeper) is conditionally unstable with only weak convective inhibition. Shallower conditionally unstable layers are associated with numerous small clouds, but do not seem to produce deep convection. The occurrence of deep convection over the ITCZ study region is presumably related to the propensity of the environment to produce areas of weak convective inhibition over such a deep layer. Three theoretically possible factors control the formation of such convectively unstable areas: 1) the strength of the total surface heat (or moist entropy) fluxes; 2) the advection of moisture into the region; and 3) temperature anomalies caused by dry adiabatic ascent of the inhibition layer, which lies typically between 700 and 850 mb. The areal fraction covered by such instability is small even on highly convective days. In the tropical eastern Pacific, it is found that the total surface entropy flux is the most significant of these factors, with a warm layer in the 700-850-mb range, resulting presumably from subsidence, playing an important suppressive role in certain cases. These two factors account for approximately two-thirds of the variance in satellite infrared brightness temperature averaged over the study region. Moisture (or moist entropy) advection appears to be of less importance. Tropical disturbances such as easterly waves, Kelvin waves, and the Madden-Julian oscillation presumably control convection primarily via these two mechanisms during their passage through this region.