The purpose of this paper is to measure the systemic risk contributions of Turkish banks and to identify the systemically important banks of Turkey during the period from 2005 to 2016. We apply the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) method proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009) using quantile regression. The study includes thirteen major banks of Turkey, including both public and private banks, out of a total of 52 banks. The banks are ranked in terms of their systemic risk contribution to the Turkish financial system based on their asset returns, macroeconomic variables and individual bank variables. The study reveals that Akbank, Garanti, Yapi Kredi and Isbank have the highest systemic risk contribution to the financial system when adding macroeconomic variables to the model. This ranking is changed to Yapi Kredi, Garanti, TEB, Sekerbank and Akbank when taking into account bank-specific variables. One surprising result is that risk in isolation and the spillover risks of public banks are smaller than in large private banks. Furthermore, the marginal systemic risk contributions of public banks are smaller than those of private banks. In conclusion, authorities improve the regulatory framework according to the context of CoVaR in addition to monitor the idiosyncratic risks of banks.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of the macroeconomic factors to the movements of the asset returns of the banks in Turkey in terms of systemic risk from 2005 to 2018. In the study, Independent Component Analysis is applied for extracting driving factors of the asset returns of Turkish banks by decomposing the returns into its components. After examining the relationship between the independent components and the macroeconomic variables, the results conclude that one component shows strong similarities with the well-known stock market index of Turkey, namely the BIST100. Besides, the BIST100 is observed as the most important macroeconomic indicator affecting the movements of the asset returns. From systemic risk perspective, the BIST100 and the exchange rate from US dollar to Turkish lira are interpreted as two macro factors that contribute to the systemic risk of Turkish banks. When it is reviewed the regression results of the estimated independent components with the macroeconomic variables, it is found that while the BIST100 affects the asset returns of Turkish banks on its own, three macroeconomic factors (the credit default swap spreads of Turkey, the exchange rate and volatility) jointly affect the banks by creating a chain effect.
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