Li, X.; Wang, B.; Tong, Z.; Jiang, Z., and Cai, C., 2023. Analysis and prediction of terrestrial water storage anomalies in the lower Yangtze River Basin based on an improved Grey-Markov model. Journal of Coastal Research, 39(3), 544–552. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208.The data from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have been used to estimate terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) in many areas. From the former studies, the TWSAs from GRACE have been proven as a sensitive indicator to extreme hydrological events, which means it is possible to forecast the extreme hydrological events through the prediction of TWSA. However, because of the limited time series and missing data of the GRACE satellite, it is still very difficult to analyze the long-term TWSAs and predict the future changes of TWSAs. In this paper, the TWSAs of the lower Yangtze River basin from 2002 to 2021 estimated by the GRACE are compared with the TWS from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) with the aspects of trend and correlation. The TWSAs from GRACE and the TWS from GLDAS in the study area are both on a slight upward trend. The Pearson correlation coefficient and the spectral analysis present a strong correlation between the two elements. According to the high correlation between the two elements, both linear and nonlinear methods are used to reconstruct a long-term GRACE data, and an improved Grey-Markov model is proposed to predict the future TWSA in the study area. The results show that a linear relationship occurs between the two elements. Moreover, the forecast results show that the TWSA of the lower Yangtze River basin will exceed 0.35 cm in 2021 and 2022, indicating continuous wet conditions in the basin. The basin should be prepared for the occurrence of floods.
The inconsistency between water consumption and the annual rainfall distribution makes it important to make full use of the flood water resource. The adjustment of the flood limited water level (FLWL) is an effective way to improve the flood water utilization, where the staged control of the FLWL plays an important role. Flood season segmentation is the basis for determining the FLWL and tapping the utilization potential of flood resources. The circular distribution method is used to segment, and the relative frequency method is used to verify. Maintaining the balance between benefit and flood control safety is the key work for the FLWL decision. The performances of water supply and hydropower generation are selected to be benefit index, and the extreme risk rate is risk index. Based on the game theory, the multi-objective cooperative decision-making model is established. Nash negotiation solution of staged FLWL is obtained by Nash negotiation theorem. The optimal scheme is determined according to the fuzzy pattern recognition theory. A reservoir is taken as an example, firstly, considering that the risk and benefit are equally valued, the FLWL of the optimal scheme in the pre-flood season is 129.0m, and the post-flood season is 128.5m. By adjusting the preference value for risk and benefit, the optimal FLWL scheme under different preferences for risk and benefit in each stage is determined.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.