Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage 1 than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects 2 . Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave 3 , but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain 4,5 . Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (6100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT 54.185310 12 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique 4-6 of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations 7 based on the effects of nuclear weapons-almost always used with this technique-overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates 5,6 near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques 8,9 . This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes. for the Chelyabinsk airburst, based on indirect illumination measured from video records. The brightness is an average derived from indirect scattered sky brightness from six videos proximal to the airburst, corrected for the sensor gamma setting, autogain, range and airmass extinction, following the procedure used for other airburst light curves generated from video 24,25 . The light curve has been normalized using the US government sensor data peak brightness value of 2.7 3 10 13 W sr 21, corresponding to an absolute astronomical magnitude of 228 in the silicon bandpass. The individual video light curves deviate by less than one magnitude between times 22 and 11.5 with larger deviations outside this interval. Time zero corresponds to 03:20:32.2 UTC on 15 February 2013. b, The energy deposition per unit height for the Chelyabinsk airburst, based on video data. The conversion to absolute energy deposition per unit path length assumes a blackbody emission of 6,000 K and bolometric efficiency of 17%, the same as the assumptions used to convert earlier US government sensor information to energy 26 . The heights are computed us...

No abstract

We have recorded a data set of 24 cm sized meteoroids detected simultaneously by video and infrasound to critically examine the ReVelle (1974) weak shock meteor infrasound model. We find that the effect of gravity wave perturbations to the wind field and updated absorption coefficients in the linear regime on the initial value of the blast radius (R 0 ), which is the strongly nonlinear zone of shock propagation near the body and corresponds to energy deposition per path length, is relatively small (<10%). Using optical photometry for ground truth for energy deposition, we find that the ReVelle model accurately predicts blast radii from infrasound periods (τ) but systematically underpredicts R 0 using pressure amplitude. If the weak shock to linear propagation distortion distance is adjusted as part of the modeling process, we are able to self-consistently fit a single blast radius value for amplitude and period. In this case, the distortion distance is always much less (usually just a few percent) than the value of 10% assumed in the ReVelle model. Our study shows that fragmentation is an important process even for centimeter-sized meteoroids, implying that R 0 , while a good measure of energy deposition by the meteoroid, is not a reliable means of obtaining the meteoroid mass. We derived an empirical period-blast radius relation of the form R 0 = 15.4τ À 0.5 (τ ≤ 0.7 s) and R 0 = 29.1τ À 11.6 (τ > 0.7 s) appropriate to centimeter-sized meteoroids. Our observations suggest that meteors having blast radii as small as 1 m are detectable infrasonically at the ground, an order of magnitude smaller than previously considered.

No abstract

Abstract-The Grimsby meteorite (H4-6) fell on September 25, 2009. As of mid-2010, 13 fragments totaling 215 g have been recovered. Records of the accompanying fireball from the Southern Ontario Meteor Network, including six all-sky video cameras, a large format CCD, infrasound and radar records, have been used to characterize the trajectory, speed, orbit, and initial mass of the meteoroid. From the four highest quality all-sky video records, the initial entry velocity was 20.91 ± 0.19 km s )1 while the derived radiant has a local azimuth of 309.40°± 0.19°and entry angle of 55.20°± 0.13°. Three major fragmentation episodes are identified at 39, 33, and 30 km height, with corresponding uncertainties of approximately 2 km. Evidence for early fragmentation at heights of approximately 70 km is found in radar data; dynamic pressure of this earliest fragmentation is near 0.1 MPa while the main flare at 39 km occurred under ram pressures of 1.5 MPa. The fireball was luminous to at least 19.7 km altitude and the dynamic mass estimate of the largest remaining fragment at this height is approximately several kilograms. The initial mass is constrained to be <100 kg from infrasound data and ablation modeling, with a most probable mass of 20-50 kg. The preatmospheric orbit is typical of an Apollo asteroid with a likely immediate origin in either the 3:1 or m 6 resonances.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract