Masting, the highly variable production of synchronized large seed crops, is a common reproductive strategy in plant populations. In wind-pollinated trees, flowering and pollination dynamics are hypothesized to provide the mechanistic link for the well-known relationship between weather and population-level seed production. Several hypotheses make predictions about the effect of weather on annual pollination success. The pollen coupling hypothesis predicts that weather and plant resources drive the flowering effort of trees, which directly translates into the size of seed crops through efficient pollination. In contrast, the pollination Moran effect hypothesis predicts that weather affects pollination efficiency, leading to occasional bumper crops. Furthermore, the recently formulated phenology synchrony hypothesis predicts that Moran effects can arise because of weather effects on flowering synchrony, which, in turn, drives pollination efficiency. We investigated the relationship between weather, airborne pollen, and seed production in common European trees, two oak species (Quercus petraea and Q. robur) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) with a 19-yr data set from three sites in Poland. Our results show that warm summers preceding flowering correlated with high pollen abundance and warm springs resulted in short pollen seasons (i.e., high flowering synchrony) for all three species. Pollen abundance was the best predictor for seed crops in beech, as predicted under pollen coupling. In oaks, short pollen seasons, rather than pollen abundance, correlated with large seed crops, providing support for the pollination Moran effect and phenology synchrony hypotheses. Fundamentally different mechanisms may therefore drive masting in species of the family Fagacae.

Masting—temporally variable seed production with high spatial synchrony—is a pervasive strategy in wind‐pollinated trees that is hypothesized to be vulnerable to climate change due to its correlation with variability in abiotic conditions. Recent work suggests that aging may also have strong effects on seed production patterns of trees, but this potential confounding factor has not been considered in previous times series analysis of climate change effects. Using a 54 year dataset for seven dominant species in 17 forests across Poland, we used the proportion of seed‐producing trees (PST) to contrast the predictions of the climate change and aging hypotheses in Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Quercus petraea, and Quercus robur. Our results show that in all species, PST increased over time and that this change correlated most strongly with stand age, while the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index, a measure of drought, contributed to temporal trends in PST of F. sylvatica and Q. robur. Temporal variability of PST also increased over time in all species except P. sylvestris, while trends in temporal autocorrelation and among‐stand synchrony reflect species‐specific masting strategies. Our results suggest a pivotal role of plant ontogeny in driving not only the extent but also variability and synchrony of reproduction in temperate forest trees. In a time of increasing forest regrowth in Europe, we therefore call for increased attention to demographic effects such as aging on plant reproductive behavior, particularly in studies examining global change effects using long‐term time series data.

Introgressive hybridization is a widespread evolutionary phenomenon which may lead to increased allelic variation at selective neutral loci and to transfer of fitness-related traits to introgressed lineages. We inferred the population genetic structure of the European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in Poland from mitochondrial (CR and cyt b) and sex-linked markers (ZFX, SRY, DBY4 and DBY8). Analyses of CR mtDNA sequences from 452 individuals indicated widespread introgression of Siberian roe deer (C. pygargus) mtDNA in the European roe deer genome, 2000 km from the current distribution range of C. pygargus. Introgressed individuals constituted 16.6% of the deer studied. Nearly 75% of them possessed haplotypes belonging to the group which arose 23 kyr ago and have not been detected within the natural range of Siberian roe deer, indicating that majority of present introgression has ancient origin. Unlike the mtDNA results, sex-specific markers did not show signs of introgression. Species distribution modelling analyses suggested that C. pygargus could have extended its range as far west as Central Europe after last glacial maximum. The main hybridization event was probably associated with range expansion of the most abundant European roe deer lineage from western refugia and took place in Central Europe after the Younger Dryas (10.8-10.0 ka BP). Initially, introgressed mtDNA variants could have spread out on the wave of expansion through the mechanism of gene surfing, reaching high frequencies in European roe deer populations and leading to observed asymmetrical gene flow. Human-mediated introductions of C. pygargus had minimal effect on the extent of mtDNA introgression.

Although the biological significance of individual variation in physiological traits is widely recognized, studies of their association with fitness in wild populations are surprisingly scarce. We investigated the effect of individual phenotypic variation in body mass, resting (RMR) and peak metabolic rates (PMR) on mortality of the root vole Microtus oeconomus. Body mass and metabolic rates varied significantly among consecutive years and were also age dependent, as individuals born in late summer and autumn were characterized by significantly lower body mass and metabolic rates than animals born earlier. At the beginning of winter voles born in spring and early summer exhibited reduced body mass and metabolic rates, whereas animals born later maintained lower body mass and RMR, which may be interpreted as phenotypic plasticity enhancing the probability of survival. Body mass had no significant effect on vole survival during summer. In contrast, smaller individuals were characterized by lower mortality during early winter, whereas higher body mass was positively associated with survival later in the season. High body‐mass‐corrected RMR positively affected survival in both summer and winter. The effect of PMR was apparent only during winter, though its direction (and correlation with RMR) varied among years. Deep snow cover negatively affected the survival of voles in both early and late winter. Ambient temperature was positively associated with winter survival, except for late winter, when rising temperature caused flooding of vole habitat. We conclude that the lack of consistency in the directionality and strength of the effects of body mass and metabolic rates on winter survival does not undermine their importance, but rather demonstrates the ability of individuals to adjust metabolic rate to changing environmental conditions. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 113, 297–309.

Although drive counts are frequently used to estimate the size of deer populations in forests, little is known about how counting methods or the density and social organization of the deer species concerned influence the accuracy of the estimates obtained, and hence their suitability for informing management decisions. As these issues cannot readily be examined for real populations, we conducted a series of ‘virtual experiments’ in a computer simulation model to evaluate the effects of block size, proportion of forest counted, deer density, social aggregation and spatial auto-correlation on the accuracy of drive counts. Simulated populations of red and roe deer were generated on the basis of drive count data obtained from Polish commercial forests. For both deer species, count accuracy increased with increasing density, and decreased as the degree of aggregation, either demographic or spatial, within the population increased. However, the effect of density on accuracy was substantially greater than the effect of aggregation. Although improvements in accuracy could be made by reducing the size of counting blocks for low-density, aggregated populations, these were limited. Increasing the proportion of the forest counted led to greater improvements in accuracy, but the gains were limited compared with the increase in effort required. If it is necessary to estimate the deer population with a high degree of accuracy (e.g. within 10% of the true value), drive counts are likely to be inadequate whatever the deer density. However, if a lower level of accuracy (within 20% or more) is acceptable, our study suggests that at higher deer densities (more than ca. five to seven deer/100 ha) drive counts can provide reliable information on population size.