The Maldives (land elevation approximately 1 m above mean sea level) is often associated with the threat of rising sea levels. Land scarcity due to population pressure is also a major issue. In the late 1990s a new 1.9km 2 1.8 m high artificial island, Hulhumalé was created for urban expansion, including an allowance for sea-level rise. This paper assesses flood exposure through an extreme water level scenario on Hulhumalé taking into account sea-level rise and analyses potential adaptation options to extend island life. Results indicate that overtopping is likely to occur with 0.6 ± 0.2 m of sea-level rise, with more severe, widespread flooding with 0.9 ± 0.2 m of sea-level rise. If the Paris Agreement goals are met, flooding is not anticipated this century. However, under a non-mitigation scenario, flooding could occur by the 2090s. Building seawalls 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m high could delay flooding for 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 m of sea-level rise, respectively. Land raising has been successful in Hulhumalé in reducing flood risk simultaneous to addressing development needs. Whilst new land claim and raising can be cost-effective, raising developed land provides greater challenges, such as timeliness with respect to infrastructure design lives or financial costs. Thus the transferability and long-term benefits of land raising requires further consideration. K E Y W O R D Sadaptation, defence, flooding, island, land claim, sea-level rise
A high‐resolution satellite image that reveals a train of coherent, submesoscale (6 km) vortices along the edge of an ocean front is examined in concert with hydrographic measurements in an effort to understand formation mechanisms of the submesoscale eddies. The infrared satellite image consists of ocean surface temperatures at ∼390 m resolution over the midlatitude North Atlantic (48.69°N, 16.19°W). Concomitant altimetric observations coupled with regular spacing of the eddies suggest the eddies result from mesoscale stirring, filamentation, and subsequent frontal instability. While horizontal shear or barotropic instability (BTI) is one mechanism for generating such eddies (Munk's hypothesis), we conclude from linear theory coupled with the in situ data that mixed layer or submesoscale baroclinic instability (BCI) is a more plausible explanation for the observed submesoscale vortices. Here we assume that the frontal disturbance remains in its linear growth stage and is accurately described by linear dynamics. This result likely has greater applicability to the open ocean, i.e., regions where the gradient Rossby number is reduced relative to its value along coasts and within strong current systems. Given that such waters comprise an appreciable percentage of the ocean surface and that energy and buoyancy fluxes differ under BTI and BCI, this result has wider implications for open‐ocean energy/buoyancy budgets and parameterizations within ocean general circulation models. In summary, this work provides rare observational evidence of submesoscale eddy generation by BCI in the open ocean.
The Maldives, with one of the lowest average land elevations above present-day mean sea level, is among the world regions that will be the most impacted by mean sea-level rise and marine extreme events induced by climate change. Yet, the lack of regional and local information on marine drivers is a major drawback that coastal decision-makers face to anticipate the impacts of climate change along the Maldivian coastlines. In this study we focus on wind-waves, the main driver of extremes causing coastal flooding in the region. We dynamically downscale large-scale fields from global wave models, providing a valuable source of climate information along the coastlines with spatial resolution down to 500 m. This dataset serves to characterise the wave climate around the Maldives, with applications in regional development and land reclamation, and is also an essential input for local flood hazard modelling. We illustrate this with a case study of HA Hoarafushi, an atoll island where local topo-bathymetry is available. This island is exposed to the highest incoming waves in the archipelago and recently saw development of an airport island on its reef via land reclamation. Regional waves are propagated toward the shoreline using a phase-resolving model and coastal inundation is simulated under different mean sea-level rise conditions of up to 1 m above present-day mean sea level. The results are represented as risk maps with different hazard levels gathering inundation depth and speed, providing a clear evidence of the impacts of the sea level rise combined with extreme wave events.
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