Water-yield assessment is crucial to effectively achieve water supply management at the basin scale. It is affected by climate change, and Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). This paper quantifies the combined impact of LULCC and climate change on water yield over short and long-term periods in the Haraz basin, Iran. This basin has experienced severe forest degradation, agricultural expansion, and urbanization. Most agricultural lands are within the plains and coastal areas, and 25% of the basin is covered by forest, which includes part of the Hyrcanian conservation forests. Four scenarios to distinguish the relative portion of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and climate for water supply variations are considered, including real conditions at the beginning of the period (Sn1), real conditions without changes in LULC (Sn2), real conditions without climate change (Sn3), and real conditions at the end of the period (Sn4). Four study periods include 1992–2007, 2007–2016, 2016–2026 as a short term, and 1992–2026 as a long-term period. The spatial patterns of annual precipitation showed decreasing amounts in the three studied years from the northwest to the south. Water yield also reduced during the study period 1992–2007 and 2007–2016, and climate change plays an essential role in this reduction. Forecasts show that rainfall will recover in 2026 and water yield will increase in the northern sub-basins. In the long run, from 1992 to 2026, the contribution of LULCC and climate change factors to water yield are equal. The results can provide references for land use management to enhance water yield considering global climate change.
The quick development of industrial sectors, tourism, and agriculture, which coincided with human habitation in cities, has led to the degradation of environmental qualities. Thus, a detailed plan is required to balance the development and environmental conservation of urban areas to achieve sustainability. This paper uses the environmental carrying capacity (i.e., ecological footprint and biological capacity) model to estimate ecological sustainability and achieve the desired balance. The results reveal that problems, such as unbalanced land development, the destruction of protected areas, and changes in land use in favor of industrial and residential development, persist in the area under study. Additionally, the studied area has been facing an ecological deficit since 1992. If this trend continues, the area will lose its chance for ecological restoration by 2030, when the ecological deficit reaches −3,497,368 hectares. The most important indicators in the ecological footprint were resource consumption in industries, water consumption in agriculture, and pollution generation from industries and household consumption. Therefore, in a sustainable scenario, the ratio of these indicators was changed based on Alborz’s development policies. In order to achieve ecological balance in the study area, short-, medium-, and long-term scenarios were proposed, as follows: (a) preventing the ecological deficit from reaching the critical threshold by 2030, (b) maintaining the ecological deficit at the same level until 2043, and (c) bringing Alborz to ecological balance (bringing the ecological deficit to zero) by 2072.
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