In this study we resolve part of the confusion over how foreign aid affects armed conflict. We argue that aid shocks-severe decreases in aid revenues-inadvertently shift the domestic balance of power and potentially induce violence. During aid shocks, potential rebels gain bargaining strength vis-à-vis the government. To appease the rebels, the government must promise future resource transfers, but the government has no incentive to continue its promised transfers if the aid shock proves to be temporary. With the government unable to credibly commit to future resource transfers, violence breaks out. Using AidData's comprehensive dataset of bilateral and multilateral aid from 1981 to 2005, we evaluate the effects of foreign aid on violent armed conflict. In addition to rare-event logit analysis, we employ matching methods to account for the possibility that aid donors anticipate conflict. The results show that negative aid shocks significantly increase the probability of armed conflict onset.
The polyamide f-ImPyIm has a higher affinity for its cognate DNA than either the parent analogue, distamycin A (10-fold), or the structural isomer, f-PyImIm (250-fold), has for its respective cognate DNA sequence. These findings have led to the formulation of a two-letter polyamide "language" in which the -ImPy- central pairings associate more strongly with Watson-Crick DNA than -PyPy-, -PyIm-, and -ImIm-. Herein, we further characterize f-ImPyIm and f-PyImIm, and we report thermodynamic and structural differences between -ImPy- (f-ImPyIm) and -PyIm- (f-PyImIm) central pairings. DNase I footprinting studies confirmed that f-ImPyIm is a stronger binder than distamycin A and f-PyImIm and that f-ImPyIm preferentially binds CGCG over multiple competing sequences. The difference in the binding of f-ImPyIm and f-PyImIm to their cognate sequences was supported by the Na(+)-dependent nature of DNA melting studies, in which significantly higher Na(+) concentrations were needed to match the ability of f-ImPyIm to stabilize CGCG with that of f-PyImIm stabilizing CCGG. The selectivity of f-ImPyIm beyond the four-base CGCG recognition site was tested by circular dichroism and isothermal titration microcalorimetry, which shows that f-ImPyIm has marginal selectivity for (A.T)CGCG(A.T) over (G.C)CGCG(G.C). In addition, changes adjacent to this 6 bp binding site do not affect f-ImPyIm affinity. Calorimetric studies revealed that binding of f-ImPyIm, f-PyImIm, and distamycin A to their respective hairpin cognate sequences is exothermic; however, changes in enthalpy, entropy, and heat capacity (DeltaC(p)) contribute differently to formation of the 2:1 complexes for each triamide. Experimental and theoretical determinations of DeltaC(p) for binding of f-ImPyIm to CGCG were in good agreement (-142 and -177 cal mol(-)(1) K(-)(1), respectively). (1)H NMR of f-ImPyIm and f-PyImIm complexed with their respective cognate DNAs confirmed positively cooperative formation of distinct 2:1 complexes. The NMR results also showed that these triamides bind in the DNA minor groove and that the oligonucleotide retains the B-form conformation. Using minimal distance restraints from the NMR experiments, molecular modeling and dynamics were used to illustrate the structural complementarity between f-ImPyIm and CGCG. Collectively, the NMR and ITC experiments show that formation of the 2:1 f-ImPyIm-CGCG complex achieves a structure more ordered and more thermodynamically favored than the structure of the 2:1 f-PyImIm-CCGG complex.
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