Summary Background Parkinson’s disease is associated with an increased incidence of cognitive impairment and dementia. Predicting who is at risk of cognitive decline early in the disease course has implications for clinical prognosis and for stratification of participants in clinical trials. We assessed the use of clinical information and biomarkers as predictive factors for cognitive decline in patients with newly diagnosed Parkinson’s disease. Methods The Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) study is a cohort study in patients with newly diagnosed Parkinson’s disease. We evaluated cognitive performance (Montreal Cognitive Assessment [MoCA] scores), demographic and clinical data, APOE status, and biomarkers (CSF and dopamine transporter [DAT] imaging results). Using change in MoCA scores over 2 years, MoCA scores at 2 years’ follow-up, and a diagnosis of cognitive impairment (combined mild cognitive impairment or dementia) at 2 years as outcome measures, we assessed the predictive values of baseline clinical variables and separate or combined additions of APOE status, DAT imaging, and CSF biomarkers. We did univariate and multivariate linear analyses with MoCA change scores between baseline and 2 years, and with MoCA scores at 2 years as dependent variables, using backwards linear regression analysis. Additionally, we constructed a prediction model for diagnosis of cognitive impairment using logistic regression analysis. Findings 390 patients with Parkinson’s disease recruited between July 1, 2010, and May 31, 2013, and for whom data on MoCA scores at baseline and 2 years were available. In multivariate analyses, baseline age, University of Pennsylvania Smell Inventory Test (UPSIT) scores, CSF amyloid β (Aβ42) to t-tau ratio, and APOE status were associated with change in MoCA scores over time. Baseline age, MoCA and UPSIT scores, and CSF Aβ42 to t-tau ratio were associated with MoCA score at 2 years (using a backwards p-removal threshold of 0·1). Accuracy of prediction of cognitive impairment using age alone (area under the curve 0·68, 95% CI 0·60–0·76) significantly improved by addition of clinical scores (UPSIT, Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behaviour Disorder Screening Questionnaire [RBDSQ], Geriatric Depression Scale, and Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale motor scores; 0·76, 0·68–0·83), CSF variables (0·74, 0·68–0·81), or DAT imaging results (0·76, 0·68–0·83). In combination, the five variables showing the most significant associations with cognitive impairment (age, UPSIT, RBDSQ, CSF Aβ42, and caudate uptake on DAT imaging) allowed prediction of cognitive impairment at 2 years (0·80, 0·74–0·87; p=0·0003 compared to age alone). Interpretation In newly diagnosed Parkinson’s disease, the occurrence of cognitive impairment at 2 year follow-up can be predicted with good accuracy using a model combining information on age, non-motor assessments, DAT imaging, and CSF biomarkers.

Background Gilles de la Tourette Syndrome is a neurodevelopmental disorder that is caused by the interaction of environment with a complex genetic background. The genetic etiology of the disorder remains, so far, elusive, although multiple promising leads have been recently reported. The recent implication of the histamine decarboxylase (HDC) gene, the key enzyme in histamine production, raises the intriguing hypothesis of a possible role of histaminergic dysfunction leading to TS onset. Methods Following up on the finding of a nonsense mutation in a single family with TS, we investigated variation across the HDC gene for association with TS. As a result of a collaborative international effort, we studied a large sample of 520 nuclear families originating from seven European populations (Greek, Hungarian, Italian, Polish, German, Albanian, Spanish) as well as a sample collected in Canada. Results and Conclusions Interrogating 12 tagging SNPs (tSNP) across the HDC region, we find strong over-transmission of alleles at two SNPs (rs854150 and rs1894236) in the complete sample, as well as a statistically significant associated haplotypes. Analysis of individual populations also reveals signals of association in the Canadian, German and Italian samples. Our results provide strong support for the histaminergic hypothesis in TS etiology and point to a possible role of histamine pathways in neuronal development.

Background Diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD) is typically preceded by nonspecific presentations in primary care. Objectives The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for diagnosis of PD based on presentations in primary care. Setting The settings were general practices providing data for The Health Improvement Network UK primary care database. Methods Data from 8,166 patients aged older than age 50 years with incident diagnosis of PD and 46,755 controls were analyzed. Likelihood ratios, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for individual symptoms and combinations of presentations were calculated. An algorithm for risk of diagnosis of PD within 5 years was calculated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Split sample analysis was used for model validation with a 70% development sample and a 30% validation sample. Results Presentations independently and significantly associated with later diagnosis of PD in multivariate analysis were tremor, constipation, depression or anxiety, fatigue, dizziness, urinary dysfunction, balance problems, memory problems and cognitive decline, hypotension, rigidity, and hypersalivation. The discrimination and calibration of the risk algorithm were good with an area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.78‐0.81). At a threshold of 5%, 37% of those classified as high risk would be diagnosed with PD within 5 years and 99% of those who were not classified as high risk would not be diagnosed with PD. Conclusion This risk algorithm applied to routine primary care presentations can identify individuals at increased risk of diagnosis of PD within 5 years to allow for monitoring and earlier diagnosis of PD. © 2019 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

for the Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Outcomes investigators H ypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a common genetic heart disease with a population prevalence ratio of approximately 1:500. 1 Early HCM cohort studies reported a high mortality due to sudden cardiac death (SCD) and heart failure but were limited by a significant selection bias. 2 Contemporary survival studies have shown that the prognosis for most individuals with the disease may be better than described previously, particularly when it is managed in line with current clinical practice guidelines, 3 but the excess mortality that HCM conveys when compared with the general population remains unclear. 4,5 We sought to compare the survival of patients with HCM in a large multicenter European cohort with that observed in the general population using contemporaneous country, agestratified, and sex-stratified European mortality data. Methods Study Design and OverviewThe present study conformed to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. 6 Data from a retrospective, multicenter, longitudinal cohort-the Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Outcome Investigators 7,8 -were used for this cohort study. The data, analytic methods, and study materials will not be made available to other researchers for purposes of reproducing the results. The study was approved by the local ethics committees in all centers with the exception of the Institute of Cardiology at the University of Bologna (Italy), where the committee was informed, but approval was not required under local IMPORTANCE It is unclear whether hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) conveys excess mortality when compared with the general population.OBJECTIVE To compare the survival of patients with HCM with that of the general European population.

IMPORTANCEMost of the global morbidity and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) occurs in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), with significant economic effects.OBJECTIVE To assess the discriminative accuracy of 3 instruments using questionnaires and peak expiratory flow (PEF) to screen for COPD in 3 LMIC settings. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSA cross-sectional analysis of discriminative accuracy, conducted between January 2018 and March 2020 in semiurban Bhaktapur, Nepal; urban Lima, Peru; and rural Nakaseke, Uganda, using a random age-and sex-stratified sample of the population 40 years or older.EXPOSURES Three screening tools, the COPD Assessment in Primary Care to Identify Undiagnosed Respiratory Disease and Exacerbation Risk (CAPTURE; range, 0-6; high risk indicated by a score of 5 or more or score 2-5 with low PEF [<250 L/min for females and <350 L/min for males]), the COPD in LMICs Assessment questionnaire (COLA-6; range, 0-5; high risk indicated by a score of 4 or more), and the Lung Function Questionnaire (LFQ; range, 0-25; high risk indicated by a score of 18 or less) were assessed against a reference standard diagnosis of COPD using quality-assured postbronchodilator spirometry. CAPTURE and COLA-6 include a measure of PEF. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESThe primary outcome was discriminative accuracy of the tools in identifying COPD as measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) with 95% CIs. Secondary outcomes included sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. RESULTS Among 10 709 adults who consented to participate in the study (mean age, 56.3 years (SD, 11.7); 50% female), 35% had ever smoked, and 30% were currently exposed to biomass smoke. The unweighted prevalence of COPD at the 3 sites was 18.2% (642/3534 participants) in Nepal, 2.7% (97/3550) in Peru, and 7.4% (264/3580) in Uganda. Among 1000 COPD cases, 49.3% had clinically important disease (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease classification B-D), 16.4% had severe or very severe airflow obstruction (forced expiratory volume in 1 second <50% predicted), and 95.3% of cases were previously undiagnosed. The AUC for the screening instruments ranged from 0.717 (95% CI, 0.677-0.774) for LFQ in Peru to 0.791 (95% CI, 0.770-0.809) for COLA-6 in Nepal. The sensitivity ranged from 34.8% (95% CI, 25.3%-45.2%) for COLA-6 in Nepal to 64.2% (95% CI, 60.3%-67.9%) for CAPTURE in Nepal. The mean time to administer the instruments was 7.6 minutes (SD 1.11), and data completeness was 99.5%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEThis study demonstrated that screening instruments for COPD were feasible to administer in 3 low-and middle-income settings. Further research is needed to assess instrument performance in other low-and middle-income settings and to determine whether implementation is associated with improved clinical outcomes.

ObjectiveIn 2014, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommended the use of a novel risk prediction model (HCM Risk-SCD) to guide use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). We sought to determine the performance of HCM Risk-SCD by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of articles reporting on the prevalence of SCD within 5 years of evaluation in low, intermediate and high-risk patients as defined by the 2014 guidelines (predicted risk <4%, 4%–<6% and ≥6%, respectively).MethodsThe protocol was registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42017064203). MEDLINE and manual searches for papers published from October 2014 to December 2017 were performed. Longitudinal, observational cohorts of unselected adult patients, without history of cardiac arrest were considered. The original HCM Risk-SCD development study was included a priori. Data were pooled using a random effects model.ResultsSix (0.9%) out of 653 independent publications identified by the initial search were included. The calculated 5-year risk of SCD was reported in 7291 individuals (70% low, 15% intermediate; 15% high risk) with 184 (2.5%) SCD endpoints within 5 years of baseline evaluation. Most SCD endpoints (68%) occurred in patients with an estimated 5-year risk of ≥4% who formed 30% of the total study cohort. Using the random effects method, the pooled prevalence of SCD endpoints was 1.01% (95% CI 0.52 to 1.61) in low-risk patients, 2.43% (95% CI 1.23 to 3.92) in intermediate and 8.4% (95% CI 6.68 to 10.25) in high-risk patients.ConclusionsThis meta-analysis demonstrates that HCM Risk-SCD provides accurate risk estimations that can be used to guide ICD therapy in accordance with the 2014 ESC guidelines.Registration numberPROSPERO CRD42017064203;Pre-results.

Aim To investigate the association between circulating anti‐dopamine D2 receptor (D2R) autoantibodies and the exacerbation of tics in children with chronic tic disorders (CTDs). Method One hundred and thirty‐seven children with CTDs (108 males, 29 females; mean age [SD] 10y 0mo [2y 7mo], range 4–16y) were recruited over 18 months. Patients were assessed at baseline, at tic exacerbation, and at 2 months after exacerbation. Serum anti‐D2R antibodies were evaluated using a cell‐based assay and blinded immunofluorescence microscopy scoring was performed by two raters. The association between visit type and presence of anti‐D2R antibodies was measured with McNemar’s test and repeated‐measure logistic regression models, adjusting for potential demographic and clinical confounders. Results At exacerbation, 11 (8%) participants became anti‐D2R‐positive (‘early peri‐exacerbation seroconverters’), and nine (6.6%) became anti‐D2R‐positive at post‐exacerbation (‘late peri‐exacerbation seroconverters’). The anti‐D2R antibodies were significantly associated with exacerbations when compared to baseline (McNemar’s odds ratio=11, p=0.003) and conditional logistic regression confirmed this association (Z=3.49, p<0.001) after adjustment for demographic and clinical data and use of psychotropic drugs. Interpretation There is a potential association between immune mechanisms and the severity course of tics in adolescents with CTDs.

ObjectiveTo examine prospectively the association between group A Streptococcus (GAS) pharyngeal exposures and exacerbations of tics in a large multicenter population of youth with chronic tic disorders (CTD) across Europe.MethodsWe followed up 715 children with CTD (age 10.7 ± 2.8 years, 76.8% boys), recruited by 16 specialist clinics from 9 countries, and followed up for 16 months on average. Tic, obsessive-compulsive symptom (OCS), and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) severity was assessed during 4-monthly study visits and telephone interviews. GAS exposures were analyzed using 4 possible combinations of measures based on pharyngeal swab and serologic testing. The associations between GAS exposures and tic exacerbations or changes of tic, OC, and ADHD symptom severity were measured, respectively, using multivariate logistic regression plus multiple failure time analyses and mixed effects linear regression.ResultsA total of 405 exacerbations occurred in 308 of 715 (43%) participants. The proportion of exacerbations temporally associated with GAS exposure ranged from 5.5% to 12.9%, depending on GAS exposure definition. We did not detect any significant association of any of the 4 GAS exposure definitions with tic exacerbations (odds ratios ranging between 1.006 and 1.235, all p values >0.3). GAS exposures were associated with longitudinal changes of hyperactivity–impulsivity symptom severity ranging from 17% to 21%, depending on GAS exposure definition.ConclusionsThis study does not support GAS exposures as contributing factors for tic exacerbations in children with CTD. Specific workup or active management of GAS infections is unlikely to help modify the course of tics in CTD and is therefore not recommended.