Our aim was to determine the minimal important difference (MID) for 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and maximal cycle exercise capacity (MCEC) in patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 1,218 patients enrolled in the National Emphysema Treatment Trial completed exercise tests before and after 4–6 weeks of pre-trial rehabilitation, and 6 months after randomisation to surgery or medical care. The St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (domain and total scores) and University of California San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire (total score) served as anchors for anchor-based MID estimates. In order to calculate distribution-based estimates, we used the standard error of measurement, Cohen’s effect size and the empirical rule effect size. Anchor-based estimates for the 6MWD were 18.9 m (95% CI 18.1–20.1 m), 24.2 m (95% CI 23.4–25.4 m), 24.6 m (95% CI 23.4–25.7 m) and 26.4 m (95% CI 25.4–27.4 m), which were similar to distribution-based MID estimates of 25.7, 26.8 and 30.6 m. For MCEC, anchor-based estimates for the MID were 2.2 W (95% CI 2.0–2.4 W), 3.2 W (95% CI 3.0–3.4 W), 3.2 W (95% CI 3.0–3.4 W) and 3.3 W (95% CI 3.0–3.5 W), while distribution-based estimates were 5.3 and 5.5 W. We suggest a MID of 26±2 m for 6MWD and 4±1 W for MCEC for patients with severe COPD.

Background:We sought to determine whether depressive or anxiety symptoms are associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalization or mortality. These data were collected as part of the National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT), a randomized controlled trial of lung volume reduction surgery vs continued medical treatment conducted at 17 clinics across the United States between January 29, 1998, and July 31, 2002.Methods: Prospective cohort study among participants in the NETT with emphysema and severe airflow limitation who were randomized to medical therapy. Primary outcomes were 1-and 3-year mortality, as well as COPD or respiratory-related hospitalization or emergency department visit during the 1-year follow-up period. Of 610 patients randomized to medical therapy, complete data on hospitalization and mortality were available for 3 years of follow-up for 603 patients (98.9%).Results: Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) questionnaire, and anxi-ety was assessed using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Among 610 subjects, 40.8% had at least mild to moderate depressive symptoms. Patients in the highest quintile of BDI score (BDI score, Ն15) had an increased risk of respiratory hospitalization in unadjusted analysis compared with patients in the lowest quintile (BDI score, Ͻ5) (odds ratio [OR], 2.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-3.93). After adjustment for disease severity, this relationship was no longer statistically significant. The adjusted risk of 3-year mortality was increased among those in the highest quintile of BDI score (OR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.42-5.29) compared with those in the lowest quintile. Anxiety was not associated with hospitalization or mortality in this population.Conclusions: Depressive symptoms are common in patients with severe COPD and are treated in few subjects. Depressive symptoms are associated with increased risk for 3-year mortality but not 1-year mortality or hospitalization.

BackgroundLittle evidence on the validity of simple and widely applicable tools to predict mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exists.ObjectiveTo conduct a large international study to validate the ADO index that uses age, dyspnoea and FEV1 to predict 3-year mortality and to update it in order to make prediction of mortality in COPD patients as generalisable as possible.DesignIndividual subject data analysis of 10 European and American cohorts (n=13 914).SettingPopulation-based, primary, secondary and tertiary care.PatientsCOPD GOLD stages I–IV.MeasurementsWe validated the original ADO index. We then obtained an updated ADO index in half of our cohorts to improve its predictive accuracy, which in turn was validated comprehensively in the remaining cohorts using discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis and a number of sensitivity analyses.Results1350 (9.7%) of all subjects with COPD (60% male, mean age 61 years, mean FEV1 66% predicted) had died at 3 years. The original ADO index showed high discrimination but poor calibration (p<0.001 for difference between predicted and observed risk). The updated ADO index (scores from 0 to 14) preserved excellent discrimination (area under curve 0.81, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.82) but showed much improved calibration with predicted 3-year risks from 0.7% (95% CI 0.6% to 0.9%, score of 0) to 64.5% (61.2% to 67.7%, score of 14). The ADO index showed higher net benefit in subjects at low-to-moderate risk of 3-year mortality than FEV1 alone.InterpretationThe updated 15-point ADO index accurately predicts 3-year mortality across the COPD severity spectrum and can be used to inform patients about their prognosis, clinical trial study design or benefit harm assessment of medical interventions.

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Rationale: The predictive value of longitudinal change in BODE (Body mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Exercise capacity) index has received limited attention. We hypothesized that decrease in a modified BODE (mBODE) would predict survival in National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT) patients. Objectives: To determine how the mBODE score changes in patients with lung volume reduction surgery versus medical therapy and correlations with survival. Methods: Clinical data were recorded using standardized instruments. The mBODE was calculated and patient-specific mBODE trajectories during 6, 12, and 24 months of follow-up were estimated using separate regressions for each patient. Patients were classified as having decreasing, stable, increasing, or missing mBODE based on their absolute change from baseline. The predictive ability of mBODE change on survival was assessed using multivariate Cox regression models. The index of concordance was used to directly compare the predictive ability of mBODE and its separate components. Measurements and Main Results: The entire cohort (610 treated medically and 608 treated surgically) was characterized by severe airflow obstruction, moderate breathlessness, and increased mBODE at baseline. A wide distribution of change in mBODE was seen at follow-up. An increase in mBODE of more than 1 point was associated with increased mortality in surgically and medically treated patients. Surgically treated patients were less likely to experience death or an increase greater than 1 in mBODE. Indices of concordance showed that mBODE change predicted survival better than its separate components. Conclusions:The mBODE demonstrates short-and intermediate-term responsiveness to intervention in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Increase in mBODE of more than 1 point from baseline to 6, 12, and 24 months of follow-up was predictive of subsequent mortality. Change in mBODE may prove a good surrogate measure of survival in therapeutic trials in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00000606).